David Shor

Like, I think if you just step back, if you have a situation where only 42 percent of Americans trust the Democratic Party on the economy relative to 58 for Republicans, you know, obviously the standard bearer of the Democratic Party is going to be perceived as too left wing unless they unless they do a lot of stuff to try to counterbalance that.

Like, I think if you just step back, if you have a situation where only 42 percent of Americans trust the Democratic Party on the economy relative to 58 for Republicans, you know, obviously the standard bearer of the Democratic Party is going to be perceived as too left wing unless they unless they do a lot of stuff to try to counterbalance that.

You know, I just want to say, you know, the TheyThem ad that everybody talks about, it was a good ad, but it was like a 70th percentile ad, you know, in our testing. If you look at all of the best testing ads from Donald Trump, it was basically the economy, it was gas prices, it was immigration, crime. And so I think that there's definitely been an overfocus on DEI, on wokeness, on trans issues.

You know, I just want to say, you know, the TheyThem ad that everybody talks about, it was a good ad, but it was like a 70th percentile ad, you know, in our testing. If you look at all of the best testing ads from Donald Trump, it was basically the economy, it was gas prices, it was immigration, crime. And so I think that there's definitely been an overfocus on DEI, on wokeness, on trans issues.

I think it definitely, you know, played a role on the elite discourse and why, you know, So many tech CEOs have become more right wing and, you know, all of all that. But I think the Republicans are making a mistake, honestly, to focus on these things so much relative to concrete issues that people actually care about.

I think it definitely, you know, played a role on the elite discourse and why, you know, So many tech CEOs have become more right wing and, you know, all of all that. But I think the Republicans are making a mistake, honestly, to focus on these things so much relative to concrete issues that people actually care about.

You know, I think that there's this bigger picture point I want to make where I think that a lot of people see the Trump administration as kind of. A break that shows that all of the traditional rules of politics no longer apply. And I think that to some extent that's wrong, that a lot of what's happening is really very easy to understand.

You know, I think that there's this bigger picture point I want to make where I think that a lot of people see the Trump administration as kind of. A break that shows that all of the traditional rules of politics no longer apply. And I think that to some extent that's wrong, that a lot of what's happening is really very easy to understand.

You know, Donald Trump, you know, to go back to the ideological thing. He broke with his party. You know, he might have been dishonest about it, but he disavowed Project 2025. He said that he wouldn't cut social programs. He ruled out a national abortion ban. And I think that, you know, that kind of thing just plays a big role in his success.

You know, Donald Trump, you know, to go back to the ideological thing. He broke with his party. You know, he might have been dishonest about it, but he disavowed Project 2025. He said that he wouldn't cut social programs. He ruled out a national abortion ban. And I think that, you know, that kind of thing just plays a big role in his success.

And I think that a lot of these newer things, you know, that we talk about might be less important than we think. So now I just have the last slide of the retrospective. And so, you know, what I have here is we have the share of voters who get their news from TikTok by year, the share of voters, of young voters who get their news from TikTok more than quadrupled in the last four years.

And I think that a lot of these newer things, you know, that we talk about might be less important than we think. So now I just have the last slide of the retrospective. And so, you know, what I have here is we have the share of voters who get their news from TikTok by year, the share of voters, of young voters who get their news from TikTok more than quadrupled in the last four years.

This is the biggest and probably fastest change in media consumption, you know, that has happened in my lifetime. And it was... quite correlated with support change. Now, obviously, TikTok users are younger, they're less politically engaged. It's not surprising that we dropped among this group. You'd expect that from demographics.

This is the biggest and probably fastest change in media consumption, you know, that has happened in my lifetime. And it was... quite correlated with support change. Now, obviously, TikTok users are younger, they're less politically engaged. It's not surprising that we dropped among this group. You'd expect that from demographics.

But if you go and you do the regressions, I think there was definitely a causal element there. And when you zoom in, particularly, to people who get their news from TikTok who don't care very much about politics, this is a group that's eight percentage points more Republican than they were four years ago, and that's a lot.

But if you go and you do the regressions, I think there was definitely a causal element there. And when you zoom in, particularly, to people who get their news from TikTok who don't care very much about politics, this is a group that's eight percentage points more Republican than they were four years ago, and that's a lot.

I don't know the answer to that. It's totally possible. We know that they do dial turning on some topics, stuff like Ukraine or Tiananmen Square or whatever. But what I'll say is I think that TikTok represents something fairly radically different than social networks that came before it. And I'm sure that there could be some malfeasance on the part of people who work there.

I don't know the answer to that. It's totally possible. We know that they do dial turning on some topics, stuff like Ukraine or Tiananmen Square or whatever. But what I'll say is I think that TikTok represents something fairly radically different than social networks that came before it. And I'm sure that there could be some malfeasance on the part of people who work there.

But the thing that I think about sometimes is just that I think TikTok is really the first social media platform that is really truly decentralized. And what I mean by that is just, it's not based on follower graphs. Like if you look at Reels or Twitter or whatever, how many people see a video or a piece of content is highly correlated with how many followers that person has.

But the thing that I think about sometimes is just that I think TikTok is really the first social media platform that is really truly decentralized. And what I mean by that is just, it's not based on follower graphs. Like if you look at Reels or Twitter or whatever, how many people see a video or a piece of content is highly correlated with how many followers that person has.