David Shor

Yeah, I think it's just worth saying that four years ago, the number one issue was COVID and healthcare. And those also were the issues that people trusted Democrats the most on. And so the strategy was really obvious, you know, just talk a lot about COVID and healthcare. But, you know, this time we had a much harder problem, which was that

Yeah, I think it's just worth saying that four years ago, the number one issue was COVID and healthcare. And those also were the issues that people trusted Democrats the most on. And so the strategy was really obvious, you know, just talk a lot about COVID and healthcare. But, you know, this time we had a much harder problem, which was that

The issues that people cared the most about, for the most part, voters didn't trust us on. And the issues that people did trust us on, you know, climate change and reproductive rights, probably the big ones, voters just didn't care very much about. And so that was just a very difficult strategic position. And it's also one that was just very different than it was four years ago.

The issues that people cared the most about, for the most part, voters didn't trust us on. And the issues that people did trust us on, you know, climate change and reproductive rights, probably the big ones, voters just didn't care very much about. And so that was just a very difficult strategic position. And it's also one that was just very different than it was four years ago.

You know, what we saw in our data was that as the Biden administration became a lot more unpopular, all of these things dropped a lot. So some of it was uniform shift. But I think that the last four years, there were some things that structurally changed a lot.

You know, what we saw in our data was that as the Biden administration became a lot more unpopular, all of these things dropped a lot. So some of it was uniform shift. But I think that the last four years, there were some things that structurally changed a lot.

In every center-left party in the world, you know, generally the left has its issues that it owns and the right has its issues that it owns. But usually the economy is pretty neutral. During the Trump administration, the economy was fairly neutral.

In every center-left party in the world, you know, generally the left has its issues that it owns and the right has its issues that it owns. But usually the economy is pretty neutral. During the Trump administration, the economy was fairly neutral.

Another really big shift was just that education has gone from being basically one of the best issues for Democrats to being something that's basically neutral now. And, you know, we saw that, you know, in the Virginia gubernatorial election in 2021, we even saw it be an advantage for Republicans.

Another really big shift was just that education has gone from being basically one of the best issues for Democrats to being something that's basically neutral now. And, you know, we saw that, you know, in the Virginia gubernatorial election in 2021, we even saw it be an advantage for Republicans.

And then, you know, the other big shift, you know, on the other side was that reproductive rights used to be a fairly neutral issue for Democrats. And immediately after Dobbs, we saw party trusts on reproductive rights shoot up. And so I think, you know, these numbers, they do change.

And then, you know, the other big shift, you know, on the other side was that reproductive rights used to be a fairly neutral issue for Democrats. And immediately after Dobbs, we saw party trusts on reproductive rights shoot up. And so I think, you know, these numbers, they do change.

And this is, you know, one of the big messages I want to get through is just that the world has changed a lot in the last four years. It's going to keep changing and we have to kind of adjust in response to what happens.

And this is, you know, one of the big messages I want to get through is just that the world has changed a lot in the last four years. It's going to keep changing and we have to kind of adjust in response to what happens.

You know, one of the big things that my firm does, it's probably our biggest product, is that we do randomized controlled trials on ads. The idea is that for a given ad, you take a thousand people, you split them into a treatment and control group. You know, 500 people see the ad, 500 people don't. And then you survey them after and you ask them who they're voting for.

You know, one of the big things that my firm does, it's probably our biggest product, is that we do randomized controlled trials on ads. The idea is that for a given ad, you take a thousand people, you split them into a treatment and control group. You know, 500 people see the ad, 500 people don't. And then you survey them after and you ask them who they're voting for.

And then the difference between treatment and control is can be described as the causal effect. And so, you know, we tested... you know, on the order of, I'd say probably like four or 5,000 Harris ads last cycle. And I just wanted to call out these two ads that were in the top 1% of ads that we tested. One is from Kamala Harris.

And then the difference between treatment and control is can be described as the causal effect. And so, you know, we tested... you know, on the order of, I'd say probably like four or 5,000 Harris ads last cycle. And I just wanted to call out these two ads that were in the top 1% of ads that we tested. One is from Kamala Harris.

Obviously, there's a lot for several parts of the Democratic coalition there. And then on the another ad by Future Forward just shows tax him for a national sales tax for the idea that Trump. Tax him being Trump. Yeah, tax Trump.

Obviously, there's a lot for several parts of the Democratic coalition there. And then on the another ad by Future Forward just shows tax him for a national sales tax for the idea that Trump. Tax him being Trump. Yeah, tax Trump.