David Solomon
👤 SpeakerAppearances Over Time
Podcast Appearances
We've obviously seen gold rally, but vulnerable would mean you have very, very significant moves that change the fundamental structure of the way people think about reserves, and the dollar is still a reserve currency.
I think the chance of that getting offset in the short run because of this political noise, even though I hear the frustration too,
And I think we're going to hear a lot of it this week, Scott.
I think the chance of the short run of that getting really set off in a significant way is very, very low.
But, you know, I think longer term, if we continue to grow the debt
We are not going to have the same latitude to have everyone around the world finance it.
And so ultimately, we ourselves in the United States will have to finance that.
To finance that, you have to ask, how does that get attractive where savers and investors that have been very, very tied to the equity markets, think about the fact that the S&P over the last 40 years has compounded by 11%-ish, people have been trained
that are investors and savers to think about equity markets, not 10-year treasuries or 30-year treasuries of 4% to 5%.
At what rate do you start shifting savers and investors from the S&P to longer treasuries?
It's not 4% or 5%.
So that can create pressure over time, but I don't think it happens dramatically in the short run.
In the short run, it's marginal.
At the end of the day, we compete in a big global world.
I do think at the margin there can be behavioral changes, but the economy is very globally interconnected.
Over time, for resilience, for security, people change supply chains, but those shifts are five, 10 years in the making.
Political cycles are shorter and generally things balance.
I hear some noise about some of this stuff, too.
I don't see it in the facts at this point in time.
We watch it carefully, Scott.