David Spiegelhalter

If I shuffle a pack of cards properly and give it a good shuffle, I can be absolutely confident. Nobody in the entire history of humanity has ever had the cards in that order before. It's not intuitive just how many shuffles there are. The number is about the same as the number of atoms in our galaxy.

If I shuffle a pack of cards properly and give it a good shuffle, I can be absolutely confident. Nobody in the entire history of humanity has ever had the cards in that order before. It's not intuitive just how many shuffles there are. The number is about the same as the number of atoms in our galaxy.

If I shuffle a pack of cards properly and give it a good shuffle, I can be absolutely confident. Nobody in the entire history of humanity has ever had the cards in that order before. It's not intuitive just how many shuffles there are. The number is about the same as the number of atoms in our galaxy.

Oh, I think it's fascinating. I mean, it's just part of being human. It's all around us. We don't know what's going to happen, and we don't know what's happening. We don't know what's happened, and we don't know why. And we live with that all the time, and we're happy with that. I mean, I always ask people, would you want to know how a football match was going to end if you had recorded it?

Oh, I think it's fascinating. I mean, it's just part of being human. It's all around us. We don't know what's going to happen, and we don't know what's happening. We don't know what's happened, and we don't know why. And we live with that all the time, and we're happy with that. I mean, I always ask people, would you want to know how a football match was going to end if you had recorded it?

Oh, I think it's fascinating. I mean, it's just part of being human. It's all around us. We don't know what's going to happen, and we don't know what's happening. We don't know what's happened, and we don't know why. And we live with that all the time, and we're happy with that. I mean, I always ask people, would you want to know how a football match was going to end if you had recorded it?

And would you want to know what you're going to get for Christmas? And even... And, of course, they say no. And even, would you like to know when you're going to die? Which, of course, I can't tell them, but very few people actually say they would like to know. Some do, but very few. And so I always think of uncertainty as a relationship between ourselves and the outside world.

And would you want to know what you're going to get for Christmas? And even... And, of course, they say no. And even, would you like to know when you're going to die? Which, of course, I can't tell them, but very few people actually say they would like to know. Some do, but very few. And so I always think of uncertainty as a relationship between ourselves and the outside world.

And would you want to know what you're going to get for Christmas? And even... And, of course, they say no. And even, would you like to know when you're going to die? Which, of course, I can't tell them, but very few people actually say they would like to know. Some do, but very few. And so I always think of uncertainty as a relationship between ourselves and the outside world.

Somebody's called it the conscious awareness of ignorance, which I really like. Because it really puts that in something we own, you know, our personal ignorance. And that can vary so much from person to person.

Somebody's called it the conscious awareness of ignorance, which I really like. Because it really puts that in something we own, you know, our personal ignorance. And that can vary so much from person to person.

Somebody's called it the conscious awareness of ignorance, which I really like. Because it really puts that in something we own, you know, our personal ignorance. And that can vary so much from person to person.

Well, I'm a statistician, so I've spent my entire career in a way analyzing uncertainty, using data and evidence to try to reduce our uncertainty and even try to quantify our uncertainty to actually get a handle on what we don't know. And I really strongly believe that we should, when possible, try to put our uncertainty into numbers.

Well, I'm a statistician, so I've spent my entire career in a way analyzing uncertainty, using data and evidence to try to reduce our uncertainty and even try to quantify our uncertainty to actually get a handle on what we don't know. And I really strongly believe that we should, when possible, try to put our uncertainty into numbers.

Well, I'm a statistician, so I've spent my entire career in a way analyzing uncertainty, using data and evidence to try to reduce our uncertainty and even try to quantify our uncertainty to actually get a handle on what we don't know. And I really strongly believe that we should, when possible, try to put our uncertainty into numbers.

I mean, we all use words like could, perhaps, likely and everything in our everyday language. But actually, those can be very dangerous. And I always refer back to 1961 when Kennedy became president and found out about the CIA bombings. planned invasion of the Bay of Pigs at Cuba to topple Castro's government with 1500 Cuban exiles.

I mean, we all use words like could, perhaps, likely and everything in our everyday language. But actually, those can be very dangerous. And I always refer back to 1961 when Kennedy became president and found out about the CIA bombings. planned invasion of the Bay of Pigs at Cuba to topple Castro's government with 1500 Cuban exiles.

I mean, we all use words like could, perhaps, likely and everything in our everyday language. But actually, those can be very dangerous. And I always refer back to 1961 when Kennedy became president and found out about the CIA bombings. planned invasion of the Bay of Pigs at Cuba to topple Castro's government with 1500 Cuban exiles.

And he commissioned the Joint Chiefs of Staff to do an intelligence report on that. And they thought it was not a very good idea at all and thought that it was about 30 to 70 chance of success. In other words, 70 percent chance of failure. But in the report that went to Kennedy, the numbers got taken out and it got replaced by, bizarrely, the term a fair chance of success.

And he commissioned the Joint Chiefs of Staff to do an intelligence report on that. And they thought it was not a very good idea at all and thought that it was about 30 to 70 chance of success. In other words, 70 percent chance of failure. But in the report that went to Kennedy, the numbers got taken out and it got replaced by, bizarrely, the term a fair chance of success.