David Spiegelhalter

And he commissioned the Joint Chiefs of Staff to do an intelligence report on that. And they thought it was not a very good idea at all and thought that it was about 30 to 70 chance of success. In other words, 70 percent chance of failure. But in the report that went to Kennedy, the numbers got taken out and it got replaced by, bizarrely, the term a fair chance of success.

And they meant not very good. But I don't think that's how anybody else would interpret it. Of course, that's not the only reason he approved the raid, which, of course, was a complete fiasco. But people have learned from that. And now in intelligence, people really try to put numbers on their judgments.

And they meant not very good. But I don't think that's how anybody else would interpret it. Of course, that's not the only reason he approved the raid, which, of course, was a complete fiasco. But people have learned from that. And now in intelligence, people really try to put numbers on their judgments.

And they meant not very good. But I don't think that's how anybody else would interpret it. Of course, that's not the only reason he approved the raid, which, of course, was a complete fiasco. But people have learned from that. And now in intelligence, people really try to put numbers on their judgments.

In the UK, if you're in MI5 or MI6 and you use the term likely, you mean between 55% and 75% probability. And if anyone assesses a 30% chance of success, they have to use the word unlikely to communicate that number. So there's a sort of lookup table between words and numbers.

In the UK, if you're in MI5 or MI6 and you use the term likely, you mean between 55% and 75% probability. And if anyone assesses a 30% chance of success, they have to use the word unlikely to communicate that number. So there's a sort of lookup table between words and numbers.

In the UK, if you're in MI5 or MI6 and you use the term likely, you mean between 55% and 75% probability. And if anyone assesses a 30% chance of success, they have to use the word unlikely to communicate that number. So there's a sort of lookup table between words and numbers.

Yeah, I know. I mean, this has been studied for ages. I'm not a psychologist, but, you know, I think it's well known that, you know, people do have an anxiety about, you know, not having control of their lives. They feel particularly bad when, you know, something, risk might be imposed upon them by something else.

Yeah, I know. I mean, this has been studied for ages. I'm not a psychologist, but, you know, I think it's well known that, you know, people do have an anxiety about, you know, not having control of their lives. They feel particularly bad when, you know, something, risk might be imposed upon them by something else.

Yeah, I know. I mean, this has been studied for ages. I'm not a psychologist, but, you know, I think it's well known that, you know, people do have an anxiety about, you know, not having control of their lives. They feel particularly bad when, you know, something, risk might be imposed upon them by something else.

They're particularly scared of things that they don't understand very well or have really dread results, giving people cancer and so on. And that makes people anxious about certain things where actually maybe They're not the main things they should be anxious about.

They're particularly scared of things that they don't understand very well or have really dread results, giving people cancer and so on. And that makes people anxious about certain things where actually maybe They're not the main things they should be anxious about.

They're particularly scared of things that they don't understand very well or have really dread results, giving people cancer and so on. And that makes people anxious about certain things where actually maybe They're not the main things they should be anxious about.

When people started doing this research in the 1980s, microwave ovens came very high on the risk index in terms of people's fears and anxieties. And that's gone down. There's some fashions in risk in what people are anxious about and what they aren't. But it is true. Our feelings come into how we feel about risk and uncertainty all the time. We can't just...

When people started doing this research in the 1980s, microwave ovens came very high on the risk index in terms of people's fears and anxieties. And that's gone down. There's some fashions in risk in what people are anxious about and what they aren't. But it is true. Our feelings come into how we feel about risk and uncertainty all the time. We can't just...

When people started doing this research in the 1980s, microwave ovens came very high on the risk index in terms of people's fears and anxieties. And that's gone down. There's some fashions in risk in what people are anxious about and what they aren't. But it is true. Our feelings come into how we feel about risk and uncertainty all the time. We can't just...

wave our fingers at people and say, oh, how silly you are that you're worried about this and you're not worried about something else. I don't think we should do that. I think we should acknowledge people's concerns but try to give them the best evidence in the clearest way so that they can make an informed choice.

wave our fingers at people and say, oh, how silly you are that you're worried about this and you're not worried about something else. I don't think we should do that. I think we should acknowledge people's concerns but try to give them the best evidence in the clearest way so that they can make an informed choice.

wave our fingers at people and say, oh, how silly you are that you're worried about this and you're not worried about something else. I don't think we should do that. I think we should acknowledge people's concerns but try to give them the best evidence in the clearest way so that they can make an informed choice.

We shouldn't be propagandizing people, trying to manipulate their feelings either to reassure them or to frighten them. And that's why in my work, I really push this idea of trustworthy communication. Why should anyone trust scientists, experts, authorities and things if they feel they're being manipulated?