David Spiegelhalter

We shouldn't be propagandizing people, trying to manipulate their feelings either to reassure them or to frighten them. And that's why in my work, I really push this idea of trustworthy communication. Why should anyone trust scientists, experts, authorities and things if they feel they're being manipulated?

We shouldn't be propagandizing people, trying to manipulate their feelings either to reassure them or to frighten them. And that's why in my work, I really push this idea of trustworthy communication. Why should anyone trust scientists, experts, authorities and things if they feel they're being manipulated?

And that means actually giving people information that's balanced and that does talk about the benefits and harms, possibly of vaccines, for example. And, you know, perhaps don't use the phrase vaccines are safe and effective, but say, yeah, they're safe enough and effective enough to use in some people in some circumstances.

And that means actually giving people information that's balanced and that does talk about the benefits and harms, possibly of vaccines, for example. And, you know, perhaps don't use the phrase vaccines are safe and effective, but say, yeah, they're safe enough and effective enough to use in some people in some circumstances.

And that means actually giving people information that's balanced and that does talk about the benefits and harms, possibly of vaccines, for example. And, you know, perhaps don't use the phrase vaccines are safe and effective, but say, yeah, they're safe enough and effective enough to use in some people in some circumstances.

Yeah, I like the idea of luck. I mean, I don't believe that luck is some external force that operates in our life. But I do think it's quite useful as a description, looking backwards at things that happened to us that were out of our control and were unpredictable and yet had a big impact, like winning the lottery or being knocked down by a car.

Yeah, I like the idea of luck. I mean, I don't believe that luck is some external force that operates in our life. But I do think it's quite useful as a description, looking backwards at things that happened to us that were out of our control and were unpredictable and yet had a big impact, like winning the lottery or being knocked down by a car.

Yeah, I like the idea of luck. I mean, I don't believe that luck is some external force that operates in our life. But I do think it's quite useful as a description, looking backwards at things that happened to us that were out of our control and were unpredictable and yet had a big impact, like winning the lottery or being knocked down by a car.

So, you know, these are all things that could happen to us. And philosophers have identified, in fact, the most important type of luck is which is what's called constitutive luck, which is just who you're born as.

So, you know, these are all things that could happen to us. And philosophers have identified, in fact, the most important type of luck is which is what's called constitutive luck, which is just who you're born as.

So, you know, these are all things that could happen to us. And philosophers have identified, in fact, the most important type of luck is which is what's called constitutive luck, which is just who you're born as.

Actually, maybe even before that, there's existential luck, which is the luck of being born at all, because it's extraordinary that any of us are born, the chain of circumstances that are required for that. But given you are born, who you're born as in the world is incredibly important for the rest of your life.

Actually, maybe even before that, there's existential luck, which is the luck of being born at all, because it's extraordinary that any of us are born, the chain of circumstances that are required for that. But given you are born, who you're born as in the world is incredibly important for the rest of your life.

Actually, maybe even before that, there's existential luck, which is the luck of being born at all, because it's extraordinary that any of us are born, the chain of circumstances that are required for that. But given you are born, who you're born as in the world is incredibly important for the rest of your life.

You know, who your parents are, the country, time of history, et cetera, especially your genes, you know, your early environment or so. You've got no control over these at all, and yet they're staggeringly important for the rest of your life. So that's the biggest bit of luck that you have, just who you are. And then, of course, you've got

You know, who your parents are, the country, time of history, et cetera, especially your genes, you know, your early environment or so. You've got no control over these at all, and yet they're staggeringly important for the rest of your life. So that's the biggest bit of luck that you have, just who you are. And then, of course, you've got

You know, who your parents are, the country, time of history, et cetera, especially your genes, you know, your early environment or so. You've got no control over these at all, and yet they're staggeringly important for the rest of your life. So that's the biggest bit of luck that you have, just who you are. And then, of course, you've got

what's called circumstantial luck, which is being at the right place at the right time, meeting your wife on a train, as somebody I know did, or being like my grandfather, being at the wrong place at the wrong time and being blown up by a shell in 1918 in the Western Front. And then you've got outcome luck, which is just how it happens to work out for you at that particular moment.

what's called circumstantial luck, which is being at the right place at the right time, meeting your wife on a train, as somebody I know did, or being like my grandfather, being at the wrong place at the wrong time and being blown up by a shell in 1918 in the Western Front. And then you've got outcome luck, which is just how it happens to work out for you at that particular moment.

what's called circumstantial luck, which is being at the right place at the right time, meeting your wife on a train, as somebody I know did, or being like my grandfather, being at the wrong place at the wrong time and being blown up by a shell in 1918 in the Western Front. And then you've got outcome luck, which is just how it happens to work out for you at that particular moment.