David Spiegelhalter

Like, you know, I know a friend of mine was on a plane that crashed. Seriously, nearly everyone on board was killed. Terrible circumstantial luck to be on that plane, but really good outcome luck because he survived. Similarly, my grandfather, actually the shell, you know, blew him up. But only not severely enough, he was taken off the front line and survived the war.

Like, you know, I know a friend of mine was on a plane that crashed. Seriously, nearly everyone on board was killed. Terrible circumstantial luck to be on that plane, but really good outcome luck because he survived. Similarly, my grandfather, actually the shell, you know, blew him up. But only not severely enough, he was taken off the front line and survived the war.

Like, you know, I know a friend of mine was on a plane that crashed. Seriously, nearly everyone on board was killed. Terrible circumstantial luck to be on that plane, but really good outcome luck because he survived. Similarly, my grandfather, actually the shell, you know, blew him up. But only not severely enough, he was taken off the front line and survived the war.

Otherwise, I wouldn't be here. Well, we're glad you are. Yeah, exactly. So am I. But I very nearly couldn't be, just like all of us. It is amazing that any of us are here at all, really.

Otherwise, I wouldn't be here. Well, we're glad you are. Yeah, exactly. So am I. But I very nearly couldn't be, just like all of us. It is amazing that any of us are here at all, really.

Otherwise, I wouldn't be here. Well, we're glad you are. Yeah, exactly. So am I. But I very nearly couldn't be, just like all of us. It is amazing that any of us are here at all, really.

Yeah, again, I don't think there's some external force. I mean, people do talk about a force like synchronicity, which Jung invented, or seriality and things. I don't believe that. I think they just happen because there's so many opportunities for them to happen. And also, I think they happen because randomness, true randomness, is very clumpy indeed.

Yeah, again, I don't think there's some external force. I mean, people do talk about a force like synchronicity, which Jung invented, or seriality and things. I don't believe that. I think they just happen because there's so many opportunities for them to happen. And also, I think they happen because randomness, true randomness, is very clumpy indeed.

Yeah, again, I don't think there's some external force. I mean, people do talk about a force like synchronicity, which Jung invented, or seriality and things. I don't believe that. I think they just happen because there's so many opportunities for them to happen. And also, I think they happen because randomness, true randomness, is very clumpy indeed.

You know, just because things are random, they're not equally spaced. So, you know, I know that if I've got 20 people and I ask them the last two digits of their cell phone number, there's an 87% chance that I'll get a match in that group of 20 people. And some people would think, oh, wow, what a coincidence. I think, no, it's utterly predictable that that'll happen.

You know, just because things are random, they're not equally spaced. So, you know, I know that if I've got 20 people and I ask them the last two digits of their cell phone number, there's an 87% chance that I'll get a match in that group of 20 people. And some people would think, oh, wow, what a coincidence. I think, no, it's utterly predictable that that'll happen.

You know, just because things are random, they're not equally spaced. So, you know, I know that if I've got 20 people and I ask them the last two digits of their cell phone number, there's an 87% chance that I'll get a match in that group of 20 people. And some people would think, oh, wow, what a coincidence. I think, no, it's utterly predictable that that'll happen.

So, you know, the clumpiness of randomness leads to coincidences occurring, and they're quite difficult to interpret. And that's why anybody who talks about a coincidence, they really need to get some expertise in there to try to evaluate that. Our human intuition about it is terrible, absolutely awful, about probability in general. We're really bad at it.

So, you know, the clumpiness of randomness leads to coincidences occurring, and they're quite difficult to interpret. And that's why anybody who talks about a coincidence, they really need to get some expertise in there to try to evaluate that. Our human intuition about it is terrible, absolutely awful, about probability in general. We're really bad at it.

So, you know, the clumpiness of randomness leads to coincidences occurring, and they're quite difficult to interpret. And that's why anybody who talks about a coincidence, they really need to get some expertise in there to try to evaluate that. Our human intuition about it is terrible, absolutely awful, about probability in general. We're really bad at it.

Well, the standard one is if you have 23 people, then there's 50 50 chance of two of them will share a birthday. And that is something you find quite difficult. So on a soccer field, there's 23 players, 11 in each team and the referee. So in half of all soccer games, there's two people on the pitch with the same birthday. And that I think people do find quite difficult.

Well, the standard one is if you have 23 people, then there's 50 50 chance of two of them will share a birthday. And that is something you find quite difficult. So on a soccer field, there's 23 players, 11 in each team and the referee. So in half of all soccer games, there's two people on the pitch with the same birthday. And that I think people do find quite difficult.

Well, the standard one is if you have 23 people, then there's 50 50 chance of two of them will share a birthday. And that is something you find quite difficult. So on a soccer field, there's 23 players, 11 in each team and the referee. So in half of all soccer games, there's two people on the pitch with the same birthday. And that I think people do find quite difficult.

And it's shown, people have shown it again and again. So it works. and you can prove it mathematically fairly easily, but it is something that doesn't correspond to our intuition. But there are other things that go the other way. That's something that we think is, whoa, that's surprising that happens so often. The other thing that actually happens is surprisingly rare is shuffling a pack of cards.

And it's shown, people have shown it again and again. So it works. and you can prove it mathematically fairly easily, but it is something that doesn't correspond to our intuition. But there are other things that go the other way. That's something that we think is, whoa, that's surprising that happens so often. The other thing that actually happens is surprisingly rare is shuffling a pack of cards.