David Spiegelhalter

Yeah. Taleb uses the frame Black Swan, which is essentially a really completely unpredictable event that occurs and then people find an excuse for it. Perfect Storm is different. It's just a very extreme example of something fairly familiar. And, you know, the story I use is about this boat, the MV Derbyshire, which is twice the size of the Titanic, and disappeared without trace in 1974.

Yeah. Taleb uses the frame Black Swan, which is essentially a really completely unpredictable event that occurs and then people find an excuse for it. Perfect Storm is different. It's just a very extreme example of something fairly familiar. And, you know, the story I use is about this boat, the MV Derbyshire, which is twice the size of the Titanic, and disappeared without trace in 1974.

And so they had no idea what happened. And eventually they found, about 12 years later, they found the wreck. And there was an inquiry and two statisticians who I know took part in the analysis of that. And they had done simulations on wave tanks and things like this. And they worked out that the boat, it was in a typhoon, went into a perfect storm.

And so they had no idea what happened. And eventually they found, about 12 years later, they found the wreck. And there was an inquiry and two statisticians who I know took part in the analysis of that. And they had done simulations on wave tanks and things like this. And they worked out that the boat, it was in a typhoon, went into a perfect storm.

And so they had no idea what happened. And eventually they found, about 12 years later, they found the wreck. And there was an inquiry and two statisticians who I know took part in the analysis of that. And they had done simulations on wave tanks and things like this. And they worked out that the boat, it was in a typhoon, went into a perfect storm.

Suddenly, you know, a wave, they reckon, you know, it could have been 25 meters high. The entire weight of it went onto the front of the boat, the front hatch, and caved it in. And then there was a chain reaction, and all the, you know, the containers in the ship just sort of exploded, just, you know, caved in, and the ship went down in seconds. They didn't even have time to send a distress call.

Suddenly, you know, a wave, they reckon, you know, it could have been 25 meters high. The entire weight of it went onto the front of the boat, the front hatch, and caved it in. And then there was a chain reaction, and all the, you know, the containers in the ship just sort of exploded, just, you know, caved in, and the ship went down in seconds. They didn't even have time to send a distress call.

Suddenly, you know, a wave, they reckon, you know, it could have been 25 meters high. The entire weight of it went onto the front of the boat, the front hatch, and caved it in. And then there was a chain reaction, and all the, you know, the containers in the ship just sort of exploded, just, you know, caved in, and the ship went down in seconds. They didn't even have time to send a distress call.

And and that was they used this, you know, technical stuff of extreme value theory. But it was an example of a perfect storm in which an event happened that had never more extreme than anything that had ever been observed before. But with the appropriate analysis, you can show that it's quite plausible that it happened. What did you say about what's a black swan? Oh, a black swan.

And and that was they used this, you know, technical stuff of extreme value theory. But it was an example of a perfect storm in which an event happened that had never more extreme than anything that had ever been observed before. But with the appropriate analysis, you can show that it's quite plausible that it happened. What did you say about what's a black swan? Oh, a black swan.

And and that was they used this, you know, technical stuff of extreme value theory. But it was an example of a perfect storm in which an event happened that had never more extreme than anything that had ever been observed before. But with the appropriate analysis, you can show that it's quite plausible that it happened. What did you say about what's a black swan? Oh, a black swan.

That was what the Taliban invented. A black swan is something that it's like, you know, people thought all swans were white. And then they went to Australia and found a black swan. And so it's something that you never even crossed your mind. A complete unknown unknown in Rumsfeld's language. So you never even crossed your mind that it was there. And then suddenly it's there.

That was what the Taliban invented. A black swan is something that it's like, you know, people thought all swans were white. And then they went to Australia and found a black swan. And so it's something that you never even crossed your mind. A complete unknown unknown in Rumsfeld's language. So you never even crossed your mind that it was there. And then suddenly it's there.

That was what the Taliban invented. A black swan is something that it's like, you know, people thought all swans were white. And then they went to Australia and found a black swan. And so it's something that you never even crossed your mind. A complete unknown unknown in Rumsfeld's language. So you never even crossed your mind that it was there. And then suddenly it's there.

And usually, of course, people then very quickly find a reason to explain why it happened. But it's a qualitatively different event from something that has happened before. And again, I think it's useful to distinguish that from a perfect storm, which is just an extreme version of something that is familiar.

And usually, of course, people then very quickly find a reason to explain why it happened. But it's a qualitatively different event from something that has happened before. And again, I think it's useful to distinguish that from a perfect storm, which is just an extreme version of something that is familiar.

And usually, of course, people then very quickly find a reason to explain why it happened. But it's a qualitatively different event from something that has happened before. And again, I think it's useful to distinguish that from a perfect storm, which is just an extreme version of something that is familiar.

I got a few principles I do, which is try to... look at the possible futures, you know, try to think of what might happen, what might go wrong, and without getting too anxious about it, and then take some mitigating circumstances, you know, sort of buying insurance and stuff like that when you go travelling. Taking risks, but not being reckless.

I got a few principles I do, which is try to... look at the possible futures, you know, try to think of what might happen, what might go wrong, and without getting too anxious about it, and then take some mitigating circumstances, you know, sort of buying insurance and stuff like that when you go travelling. Taking risks, but not being reckless.

I got a few principles I do, which is try to... look at the possible futures, you know, try to think of what might happen, what might go wrong, and without getting too anxious about it, and then take some mitigating circumstances, you know, sort of buying insurance and stuff like that when you go travelling. Taking risks, but not being reckless.