David Yaffe-Bellany

It's gaining popularity.

It's growing.

It's getting more attention in the media.

And it really comes to a head in 2024 as the presidential election is heating up.

And it starts that summer after Joe Biden's disastrous debate performance when there's all kinds of speculation about whether Biden will drop out of the race.

And suddenly users of PolyMarket start betting on that.

At the time, many Democratic talking heads, pundits, the Biden administration, and of course Biden himself were saying he's not going to drop out.

But the betting market projected that he would drop out.

So when Biden eventually did, it felt like a moment of vindication for polymarket and sort of a preview of what it might offer to the world.

Right, and of course it's not like this was some question nobody was considering or that there wasn't punditry about it or people predicting that it would happen, but Polymarket was a place where all of that was sort of consolidated into one number, and you could kind of get a sense of the way the wind was blowing.

And that moment, that question of whether Biden will drop out, then sets Polly Market up for the next big question of the 2024 race, which of course is who's going to win the election?

Will it be Harris or will it be Trump?

Back then, it was a close race.

The polls showed that the two candidates were essentially neck and neck.

But the projections on polymarket started to shift heavily in Trump's favor.

And obviously, Trump did win.

And it was another moment of vindication for Copeland's site.

Exactly.

And what was especially fascinating about this example is that we got kind of a peek under the hood at how these projections came about.

Now, remember that these projections are the result of a financial market, and a few large trades can shift a financial market significantly.