David Yaffe-Bellany
๐ค SpeakerAppearances Over Time
Podcast Appearances
And in this case, a wealthy trader in France came forward and said that he had made $30 million in bets that Trump would win the election and that this was based on his own careful research.
He'd actually commissioned his own poll because he thought the traditional U.S.
polling was misleading and that just out of that conviction, he put all of this money on Trump, which effectively shifted the polymarket odds in Trump's favor.
And it was a profitable play.
This guy made more than $85 million in profits when Trump won the election.
People started calling him the French Whale.
Suddenly these markets that had sort of operated on the margins of the financial system, getting some notice but not a ton, suddenly everyone stands up and says, wow, huge amounts of money are changing hands on these things.
We really have to take them seriously.
And, of course, Copeland is taking a victory lap.
But soon we learned that this entire time as the company has been blowing up, becoming a big mainstream phenomenon, they've been under a federal criminal investigation.
In fact, shortly after the election, the FBI raids Copeland's home in New York City.
And it's all part of an investigation into whether PolyMarket is legally allowing U.S.
users to access the platform.
So at the same time, you've got this moment of public vindication.
You also have this really fraught legal moment where it's not clear whether the platform can survive in the United States.
But there's a light at the end of the tunnel for Copeland, which is that soon Trump is going to take office.
And as soon as he's in power, everything changes.