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The Duopolies of 2026: Ethereum & Solana, Coinbase & Robinhood, Polymarket & Kalshi | Ryan, David & Arnav Pagidyala
And especially these general purpose all L1s and L2s, I believe they're going to continue to struggle to attract new liquidity, new users without blasting incentives, right?
Bankless
The Duopolies of 2026: Ethereum & Solana, Coinbase & Robinhood, Polymarket & Kalshi | Ryan, David & Arnav Pagidyala
We've seen a number of alt L1s throughout the last year run these really aggressive deposit campaigns.
Bankless
The Duopolies of 2026: Ethereum & Solana, Coinbase & Robinhood, Polymarket & Kalshi | Ryan, David & Arnav Pagidyala
You get nine figures in deposits.
Bankless
The Duopolies of 2026: Ethereum & Solana, Coinbase & Robinhood, Polymarket & Kalshi | Ryan, David & Arnav Pagidyala
They pay out a significant amount of incentives and the capital immediately leaves.
Bankless
The Duopolies of 2026: Ethereum & Solana, Coinbase & Robinhood, Polymarket & Kalshi | Ryan, David & Arnav Pagidyala
And maybe one of the more recent examples of this is Unichain.
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The Duopolies of 2026: Ethereum & Solana, Coinbase & Robinhood, Polymarket & Kalshi | Ryan, David & Arnav Pagidyala
You know, back in July, they were at roughly $1 billion in TVL with the incentives.
Bankless
The Duopolies of 2026: Ethereum & Solana, Coinbase & Robinhood, Polymarket & Kalshi | Ryan, David & Arnav Pagidyala
Fast forward to today, they're at circa $100 million in TVL.
Bankless
The Duopolies of 2026: Ethereum & Solana, Coinbase & Robinhood, Polymarket & Kalshi | Ryan, David & Arnav Pagidyala
And it's just this very common playbook that's been run.
Bankless
The Duopolies of 2026: Ethereum & Solana, Coinbase & Robinhood, Polymarket & Kalshi | Ryan, David & Arnav Pagidyala
And the reason why is like all the capital ends up going back to Ethereum or Solana.
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The Duopolies of 2026: Ethereum & Solana, Coinbase & Robinhood, Polymarket & Kalshi | Ryan, David & Arnav Pagidyala
And I think beyond that, if you were to ask me a year, two years ago, uh,
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The Duopolies of 2026: Ethereum & Solana, Coinbase & Robinhood, Polymarket & Kalshi | Ryan, David & Arnav Pagidyala
will PumpFun or Polymarket launch their own chain?
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The Duopolies of 2026: Ethereum & Solana, Coinbase & Robinhood, Polymarket & Kalshi | Ryan, David & Arnav Pagidyala
I would have bet strongly yes.
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The Duopolies of 2026: Ethereum & Solana, Coinbase & Robinhood, Polymarket & Kalshi | Ryan, David & Arnav Pagidyala
Both controlled, you know, the front end.
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The Duopolies of 2026: Ethereum & Solana, Coinbase & Robinhood, Polymarket & Kalshi | Ryan, David & Arnav Pagidyala
They owned all the users, the eyeballs, and they didn't, right?
Bankless
The Duopolies of 2026: Ethereum & Solana, Coinbase & Robinhood, Polymarket & Kalshi | Ryan, David & Arnav Pagidyala
And that really begs the question, why didn't they?
Bankless
The Duopolies of 2026: Ethereum & Solana, Coinbase & Robinhood, Polymarket & Kalshi | Ryan, David & Arnav Pagidyala
And if they didn't, who should, right?
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The Duopolies of 2026: Ethereum & Solana, Coinbase & Robinhood, Polymarket & Kalshi | Ryan, David & Arnav Pagidyala
So even for these application-specific chains, it's come into question that
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The Duopolies of 2026: Ethereum & Solana, Coinbase & Robinhood, Polymarket & Kalshi | Ryan, David & Arnav Pagidyala
These companies actually really, A, not only value the network effects of their underlying network, but B, they can't really justify launching a chain because before the reason to launch a chain was you could really establish this large L1 premium.
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The Duopolies of 2026: Ethereum & Solana, Coinbase & Robinhood, Polymarket & Kalshi | Ryan, David & Arnav Pagidyala
And by and large, again, outside of the really big winners, that doesn't exist today.
Bankless
The Duopolies of 2026: Ethereum & Solana, Coinbase & Robinhood, Polymarket & Kalshi | Ryan, David & Arnav Pagidyala
And again, you're abandoning the network effects of the underlying chain and you're introducing a lot of friction.