Derek Thompson

I mean, I realize we brought back a lot of the other tariffs, but anyway, continue. And the average tariff rate is extremely high on this country. So on the one hand, I think you've got the market saying, I think we can weather this. Now, here's the next shoe to drop.

I mean, I realize we brought back a lot of the other tariffs, but anyway, continue. And the average tariff rate is extremely high on this country. So on the one hand, I think you've got the market saying, I think we can weather this. Now, here's the next shoe to drop.

I mean, I realize we brought back a lot of the other tariffs, but anyway, continue. And the average tariff rate is extremely high on this country. So on the one hand, I think you've got the market saying, I think we can weather this. Now, here's the next shoe to drop.

A lot of folks who are pretty read up on supply chains say that trade has shut down with China to the extent that the container ships that are currently crossing the Pacific and will be unloaded at docks across the country, those are significantly down from where they were a month, three months, 12 months ago. which means that we could see very soon shortages in price hikes.

A lot of folks who are pretty read up on supply chains say that trade has shut down with China to the extent that the container ships that are currently crossing the Pacific and will be unloaded at docks across the country, those are significantly down from where they were a month, three months, 12 months ago. which means that we could see very soon shortages in price hikes.

A lot of folks who are pretty read up on supply chains say that trade has shut down with China to the extent that the container ships that are currently crossing the Pacific and will be unloaded at docks across the country, those are significantly down from where they were a month, three months, 12 months ago. which means that we could see very soon shortages in price hikes.

As Americans go to stores, the Home Depot, FAO Schwartz, Target, Walmart, and realize that for every 100 items that might have existed six months ago in stock, there's only going to be 60 or 50. So those shortages are about two to three weeks away. And I think the market is just sort of holding on and waiting to see what happens when the tariffs really bite the supply chain.

As Americans go to stores, the Home Depot, FAO Schwartz, Target, Walmart, and realize that for every 100 items that might have existed six months ago in stock, there's only going to be 60 or 50. So those shortages are about two to three weeks away. And I think the market is just sort of holding on and waiting to see what happens when the tariffs really bite the supply chain.

As Americans go to stores, the Home Depot, FAO Schwartz, Target, Walmart, and realize that for every 100 items that might have existed six months ago in stock, there's only going to be 60 or 50. So those shortages are about two to three weeks away. And I think the market is just sort of holding on and waiting to see what happens when the tariffs really bite the supply chain.

There's another thing that's happening that you teed up, which is that the labor market is starting to show some interesting signs of possibly weakening. And You're absolutely right. We're talking at 12, 13 p.m. Friday. We just had a jobs report about four hours ago which indicated just under 200,000 new jobs being created. That's decently healthy.

There's another thing that's happening that you teed up, which is that the labor market is starting to show some interesting signs of possibly weakening. And You're absolutely right. We're talking at 12, 13 p.m. Friday. We just had a jobs report about four hours ago which indicated just under 200,000 new jobs being created. That's decently healthy.

There's another thing that's happening that you teed up, which is that the labor market is starting to show some interesting signs of possibly weakening. And You're absolutely right. We're talking at 12, 13 p.m. Friday. We just had a jobs report about four hours ago which indicated just under 200,000 new jobs being created. That's decently healthy.

But one thing that I've been looking at is the unemployment rate for new college graduates. which I've read from a bunch of different indicators, seems to be weakening. The New York Federal Reserve keeps a pretty steady survey on the unemployment rate for recent college grads and found that it recently spiked to about 6%, its highest in a long time.

But one thing that I've been looking at is the unemployment rate for new college graduates. which I've read from a bunch of different indicators, seems to be weakening. The New York Federal Reserve keeps a pretty steady survey on the unemployment rate for recent college grads and found that it recently spiked to about 6%, its highest in a long time.

But one thing that I've been looking at is the unemployment rate for new college graduates. which I've read from a bunch of different indicators, seems to be weakening. The New York Federal Reserve keeps a pretty steady survey on the unemployment rate for recent college grads and found that it recently spiked to about 6%, its highest in a long time.

And what we're seeing, this is what the article that I wrote about in The Atlantic was really focused on, is this disconnect where recent grads are doing significantly worse than the overall job market rather than, like 10, 15 years ago, doing significantly better. Something weird has happened in the job market for recent grads.

And what we're seeing, this is what the article that I wrote about in The Atlantic was really focused on, is this disconnect where recent grads are doing significantly worse than the overall job market rather than, like 10, 15 years ago, doing significantly better. Something weird has happened in the job market for recent grads.

And what we're seeing, this is what the article that I wrote about in The Atlantic was really focused on, is this disconnect where recent grads are doing significantly worse than the overall job market rather than, like 10, 15 years ago, doing significantly better. Something weird has happened in the job market for recent grads.

It might have to do with the fact that a lot of companies are just freaked out about the tariffs and they're like, I'm not going to hire young people because that's an expensive investment in the long term. It could be just a couple weird thing compiling in the economy, like the long-term decline of the college wage premium and a little bit of uncertainty about the future.

It might have to do with the fact that a lot of companies are just freaked out about the tariffs and they're like, I'm not going to hire young people because that's an expensive investment in the long term. It could be just a couple weird thing compiling in the economy, like the long-term decline of the college wage premium and a little bit of uncertainty about the future.