Derek Thompson

And I don't think that I have the slam dunk facts to back up the case that right now, today, we're looking at major substitution of machines for people. But I think this would be the indicator to look at rising unemployment among college grads.

And I don't think that I have the slam dunk facts to back up the case that right now, today, we're looking at major substitution of machines for people. But I think this would be the indicator to look at rising unemployment among college grads.

And I don't think that I have the slam dunk facts to back up the case that right now, today, we're looking at major substitution of machines for people. But I think this would be the indicator to look at rising unemployment among college grads.

Yeah, let's talk about the stock market first, and then I'll do some commentary on China. It's a classic and famous fool's errand to try to explain the stock market with a simple story, because the stock market is this aggregate of thousands, millions of people around the world making a bunch of different decisions about what they think the future's going to be.

Yeah, let's talk about the stock market first, and then I'll do some commentary on China. It's a classic and famous fool's errand to try to explain the stock market with a simple story, because the stock market is this aggregate of thousands, millions of people around the world making a bunch of different decisions about what they think the future's going to be.

Yeah, let's talk about the stock market first, and then I'll do some commentary on China. It's a classic and famous fool's errand to try to explain the stock market with a simple story, because the stock market is this aggregate of thousands, millions of people around the world making a bunch of different decisions about what they think the future's going to be.

And the fact, I would say, that that aggregate has moved the stock market up in the last two weeks suggests to me one of two things, or the following two things. Number one, that people think that Trump is becoming more like a typical corporate Republican.

And the fact, I would say, that that aggregate has moved the stock market up in the last two weeks suggests to me one of two things, or the following two things. Number one, that people think that Trump is becoming more like a typical corporate Republican.

And the fact, I would say, that that aggregate has moved the stock market up in the last two weeks suggests to me one of two things, or the following two things. Number one, that people think that Trump is becoming more like a typical corporate Republican.

That if you compare what he is saying and what Besant is saying to what happened on April 2nd, the direction we are moving in is a direction from wild and crazy Trumpism to something a little bit more like Mitt Romneyism. Now, as you said, tariffs are still 10% around the world and still 145% on China. But now we're talking about free trade deals.

That if you compare what he is saying and what Besant is saying to what happened on April 2nd, the direction we are moving in is a direction from wild and crazy Trumpism to something a little bit more like Mitt Romneyism. Now, as you said, tariffs are still 10% around the world and still 145% on China. But now we're talking about free trade deals.

That if you compare what he is saying and what Besant is saying to what happened on April 2nd, the direction we are moving in is a direction from wild and crazy Trumpism to something a little bit more like Mitt Romneyism. Now, as you said, tariffs are still 10% around the world and still 145% on China. But now we're talking about free trade deals.

we're talking about getting China to the bargaining table. And I think there's just a lot of crossed fingers out there in the investing community that eventually this is going to pull us back toward the world we had on March 30th rather than the world we had on April 3rd. That's my guess. Good luck, guys. Good luck. And look, we're just going to know a lot more in two weeks.

we're talking about getting China to the bargaining table. And I think there's just a lot of crossed fingers out there in the investing community that eventually this is going to pull us back toward the world we had on March 30th rather than the world we had on April 3rd. That's my guess. Good luck, guys. Good luck. And look, we're just going to know a lot more in two weeks.

we're talking about getting China to the bargaining table. And I think there's just a lot of crossed fingers out there in the investing community that eventually this is going to pull us back toward the world we had on March 30th rather than the world we had on April 3rd. That's my guess. Good luck, guys. Good luck. And look, we're just going to know a lot more in two weeks.

All these supply chain experts I've spoken to, the folks at Bloomberg constantly talk to, they say it's really the middle end of May where we're going to begin to see the kind of shortages that are just inevitable with tariffs this high in our largest or second largest trading partner.

All these supply chain experts I've spoken to, the folks at Bloomberg constantly talk to, they say it's really the middle end of May where we're going to begin to see the kind of shortages that are just inevitable with tariffs this high in our largest or second largest trading partner.

All these supply chain experts I've spoken to, the folks at Bloomberg constantly talk to, they say it's really the middle end of May where we're going to begin to see the kind of shortages that are just inevitable with tariffs this high in our largest or second largest trading partner.

So the real conversation to have about this probably isn't May 2nd, it's June 2nd, but we'll see what happens in a month. On China, I think it's really important to observe that While the U.S. is the richest country in the world, the largest economy in the world, if you're just judging an economy based on what it makes, no one comes anywhere close to China.

So the real conversation to have about this probably isn't May 2nd, it's June 2nd, but we'll see what happens in a month. On China, I think it's really important to observe that While the U.S. is the richest country in the world, the largest economy in the world, if you're just judging an economy based on what it makes, no one comes anywhere close to China.