Derek Thompson

And other countries, like Korea, that are making ships might also be facing similar choices.

Why aren't we hearing these countries scream publicly at American leadership, end this war right now, you don't realize what you're doing to your allies?

Why aren't we hearing about this screaming in public news?

Let's connect a few dots here.

One of the most exposed parts of the world are the Pacific Islands that rely on diesel fuel.

Diesel fuel prices are skyrocketing because of a war that America chose to start with Israel in the Middle East.

That could tip

leadership in the Pacific Islands, from thinking of the U.S.

as an ally to thinking of the U.S.

as a kind of rogue superpower that they can no longer trust.

And as that balance shifts toward maybe we should, in exchange for receiving diesel or energy from China, allow China to have a larger military presence in these Pacific Islands, that allows China to build a kind of military shell in the Pacific.

At the same time, you have this dual-sided crisis in Taiwan where essentially they're having to choose between using scarce energy for air conditioning or chip manufacturing.

I mean, let's allow ourselves to get a little bit speculative here.

To what extent do you think what we're seeing right now in the news of April 2026 is the beginning of a shifting balance of power in the Pacific that could end with China essentially just taking the Pacific and Taiwan in particular as a kind of military vassal?

You're saying the longer this goes on, the larger the possibility, essentially, that China is the declarative winner of this contest in the Pacific.

For sure.

I want to turn to Europe because what's happening in Europe also really interests me in terms of its long-term effects.

You've seen the EU Energy Commissioner announce that they're encouraging people to not drive.

They're encouraging people to work remotely.

Those are the first order effects, right?