Diane Swonk

We know at the end of the year, those having to accept part time instead of full time hit an all time high.

We're now at the place where in the new millennium.

For the last 25 years, we've seen instead of multiple job holders falling as an expansion goes longer, they're now rising.

This is part of that labor share of income being eroded, the inequalities we're seeing out there.

And the frozen state of the labor market where those who have a job are clinging on and those who do not have a job are left wanting, I think is very important to understand.

When you think about things like the U6 measure of unemployment, which gets into that sort of under the hood, that's running around 8.4 percent, 2.2 percent above where it was in 2019.

And I think those are important issues.

Well, it's a difficult thing to do.

And certainly with the way that the C-suite and the gap between employees and the C-suite see AI and how it's affecting productivity growth is another issue.

We could literally see a payroll recession as the economy booms.

in 2026.

And that is something that I never expected to see out there.

I think it's really important to remember, though, that we still have not ameliorated inflation.

We still have inflation.

And it's much like compounding stock returns that has driven that wedge of wealth higher, compounding inflation over the last five years.

has left prices out of reach for too many.

At the same time, the labor market is frozen, and that is why you're seeing the consumer attitude surveys we are.

It's really important from a macro perspective because I think it's providing a underlying floor under inflation.

And that's what I worry about could happen with fiscal stimulus on top of it to temporarily disperse economic gains at the beginning of the year as we see those tax refunds come in.

That is important because you...