Chapter 1: What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
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Chapter 2: What is the Federal Reserve's latest policy decision?
Now the Fed says it's about 30,000. So the closer you get to zero, of course, the more this will also begin to have more worries among people, whether can I find a job, can I not find a job? And those worries, of course, in sentiment, are exactly showing up that, in particular, the lower leg of the K continues to be under significant distress.
Federal Reserve keeping rates unchanged. If you are just tuning in, as expected, equities on the S&P 500 just a little bit lower, just off all-time highs on the S&P 500. Two descents looking for a 25 basis point reduction, one from Governor Myron, another from Governor Waller.
Joining us now, a man who knows a little something about how this committee makes decisions, the former Fed Vice Chair, Richard Clarida. Rich, welcome to the programme, sir. What do you make of this decision and what are you looking for from the news conference in 25 minutes' time?
You know, it's as expected, pretty minimal changes to the statement. If anything, as you mentioned, though, changing in the wording about the labor market, I thought it was a close call going in whether or not we would see Governor Waller or Vice Chair Bowman dissent. And in the end, we did get the dissent from Chris Waller. I agree with Torsten, who was on.
Earlier, you know, Chris is a good economist. He's been consistent and had a good call on the labor market and inflation. And he's made the case in many speeches that there is a case to get rates down to neutral. So I take him at his word on that. In terms of the press conference, obviously no SEP projections or the like.
And I think the reporters will be pressing the chair on what message they should take away from this in terms of the remainder of the year. When you look at the politics here, I'm hesitant to say Chairman Clarida, but is this a moment where the president goes outside the chosen four candidates?
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Chapter 3: What are the implications of the Fed's unchanged interest rates?
You know, there has been this speculation. There was the reporting this morning. You know, I know each of the candidates. I think any of them would be a good choice.
Chapter 4: Who dissented in the Fed's decision and why?
They bring strengths to the job. But there are a lot of moving parts when you're Fed chair. And so it'll be interesting to see who they finally select. You and I remember the day where Phil Graham went after Alan Greenspan on foreign exchange.
Richard Claret, is it appropriate that a Fed chairman speak of dollar dynamics, particularly the whipsaw of President weak dollar and Secretary of Treasury strong dollar? Great question as usual, Tom.
You know, never say never, but both as a policymaker and as a student of policymaking, the Fed tries to stay out of any and all discussions about exchange rates, and I would expect Jay Powell today, if he's asked that question, to do the same.
So, Rich, when you think about yield curve dynamics, I mean, what is your view on what the yield curve will do? The consensus has the view that it will steepen. Is that also your view, or do you think front-end rates will stay stable and long rates will also stay stable, or how do you think about the curve at the moment?
Yeah. No, hi, Torsten. You know, what's been remarkable is really since either going back to the last hike, which was all the way back in 23 or the first cut in 2024, the 10-year Treasury has been in a range from
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Chapter 5: How does the Fed's statement reflect economic conditions?
roughly four and three quarters to three and three quarters. A lot's happened in that intervening period. That importantly reflects much higher real rates than we had pre-pandemic. So you have seen a shift up in the curve relative to pre-pandemic. And yes, would expect the curve to continue to steepen. over time as 10 years stay in that range and as front-end rates come down under the new chair.
Richard, you identify a range impressively stable so far. For you and the team at PIMCO, Rich, what's behind, what's the biggest pillar of that stability that we've seen over the past few months at the long end of the curve?
Well, I think it reflects the new dynamics, both because potentially a faster productivity growth and fiscal concerns. It's appropriate that longer dated real yields are higher than they were before. I think that's an important fact of life. I mean, the real debate and the real issue is, you know, within the Fed and in the markets is, you know, where's the neutral rate?
Where do front end rates lie? end up. And we still think that neutral for the funds rate is somewhere down around three percent. But obviously, that's going to depend on where we are in the cycle as well.
And this may be an unfair question. Do you think an incoming Fed chair is going to make dramatic changes to the Fed staff in terms of who is head of which departments? Or how do you think the incoming chair might think about things if he or she doesn't think that it's likely that interest rates are going to be coming down because of persuading the committee?
You know, I'm not sure about that. It is important just for the public to know that the board staff does report to the chair. You know, during my time there, Chair Powell asked me to get very much involved with the staff, and I learned a lot from them. But it's... I think there typically have been and always will be changes in staff. People get promoted. People moved on.
And I should say during my time at the Fed, the senior staff I worked with was incredibly capable. So I don't think there'll be any issues there. Torsten Schlager, I think it's so important that we describe the academics of Richard Clarida. All that he did was this fancy thing, dynamics, stochastic general equilibrium theory and monetary policy.
John mentioned earlier, do we know the reaction functions? Do you have an operative theory from the world of Richard Clarida now that's operational?
Well, Rich is well famous for the credit multiplier and the work he did with Bernanke. And, of course, what credit markets have been doing and what credit markets are doing is often very critical, of course, for the economy. Because if credit conditions begin to tighten, the economy has a problem.
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Chapter 6: What are the potential future actions the Fed might take?
a more assertive approach from the chairman a few weekends ago towards the White House. Rich, what do you think prompted that? How much internal debate was there about it?
You know, I'm not sure. I guess we'll have to wait for Jay Powell's memoir to find out. I just infer that the chair made the decision. He had been quiet and had really not weighed in in the past, and I think he just made a decision that he wanted it to be known, that he felt that the Fed needed to focus on independence and focus on making the judgments on monetary policy.
Do you think that's made it harder?
Any color beyond that, we'll have to wait for the memoir.
Rich, do you think it's made it harder to focus on monetary policy, though?
I really don't think so. In light of all the things that are going on, I think it was a very clear indication that for the remainder of his term as chair, that will be the focus.
Richard Clarida, thank you, sir. As always, a former Fed Vice Chair Rich Clarida, we have no doubt the chairman will be asked about that issue in about 20 minutes' time. Joining us now to extend the conversation, Bob Michael of JPMorgan Asset Management. Bob, you've always got your own questions, buddy. What do you want to hear from the chairman in the next hour?
Well, the question he's not going to answer is, does he intend to stay on after his chair expires? But I think the one to ask is, what does he see in the labor market that's particularly wearing to him? And is the Fed undergoing studies about what the broader impact of AI will be across the economy? Bob, Michael, you look at the key question that you mentioned is labor.
We mentioned this earlier off Orzag and Posen recently. Does your team at J.P. Morgan see any form of wage dynamic that indicates inflation? Not so much right now. I think this low hire, low fire has really dampened wage gains quite a bit. We'll see what happens in the first half of the year. Certainly expectations are pretty good for the economy and corporate spending.
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Chapter 7: What insights does the former Fed Vice Chair provide?
We still have inflation. And it's much like compounding stock returns that has driven that wedge of wealth higher, compounding inflation over the last five years. has left prices out of reach for too many. At the same time, the labor market is frozen, and that is why you're seeing the consumer attitude surveys we are.
And what are the consequences of the K-shaped situation for the consumer from a broad macro perspective? The weekly, the monthly retail sales data is still reasonably okay. Does this matter later this year, or how do you think about the K-shaped situation? Is it something that the Fed should take into account, or why does this matter from a macro perspective?
It's really important from a macro perspective because I think it's providing a underlying floor under inflation. And that's what I worry about could happen with fiscal stimulus on top of it to temporarily disperse economic gains at the beginning of the year as we see those tax refunds come in. That is important because you...
sort of the sugar high could be very short lived if it only makes inflation stick. And as I said, inflation is already compounded to the place where most Americans feel that things are out of reach. And that underscores and undercuts the Fed's inflation fighting credibility.
Dan, I think we have to say, and I'm sure you share this sentiment, if any of us gets a tax refund, it's paying the energy bill over the last month. Thank you, Dan Swonk, weighing in on the Federal Reserve and a backdrop for the economy. I think we just take a beat with the two and a half minutes we have left.
What Dan Swonk just said there, that we could have an economic boom and a payrolls recession. Now, I know this sounds a little bit philosophical, but what on earth is a boom if we have a payrolls recession?
I'm going to go to Torsten. Your question, John, is brilliant. What she said was remarkable. I don't think I've ever heard that, ever, ever. The bottom line is we have a president who's prosecuting a neo-mercantilist strategy. You were weaned on this ages and ages, great-grandpa Slock a million years ago as well.
How do we extract ourselves from a neo-mercantilist strategy to get growth back in for the rest of the public not benefiting from this tech boom?
Well, the challenge, of course, is that the AI boom has been the main driver for so long. But if you implement policies, of course, that ultimately says that we want fewer goods and fewer people to come into the country, the risk is that that, of course, does come deglobalization with a risk of higher inflation, risk of higher inflation in prices, risk of higher inflation in wages.
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