Richard Clarida

Well, hi, Scarlett.

Yes, as we used to say during my time at the Fed, the U.S.

economy is in a good place, and it is.

It's been remarkably resilient.

Growth for 2025 will probably come in north of 2%, finishing strong.

Inflation has been basically flat.

It did not really move up as a result of the tariffs.

We've had strong capital spending in the tech sector.

Now, in 2026, you've got the big, beautiful bill, which is providing a fiscal impulse.

You've got commitments from foreign countries and companies to invest in the U.S.

And obviously, the capital spending boom in the tech sector continues.

And so, indeed, I think you summarized it well.

The economy is in a pretty good place.

Okay.

Well, you know, Scarlett, I think both can be true at the same time in the sense that you have a very positive impulse from the tech sector, from tech capital investment, and obviously households that own a lot of stocks and own their own home have done quite well because of the wealth effect, you know, the K-shaped economy that you talked about.

But as you move outside of those

I think it is more of an uneven story, and I think uncertainty is more relevant, and this may well be a year when the aggregates and averages are hiding a lot of interesting differences in the economy.

Well, of course, only President Trump knows where he's going to land.

What I would say is I know all of them well.

It does appear as though Kevin Hassett and the president have decided that perhaps his best role is to stay as the National Economic Council director, so that leaves...