Richard Clarida

Well, and also you left out Bob Mundell, truly a giant in international monetary economics.

So it certainly has been a treat to be at Columbia all these years.

We're definitely in a K-shaped economy.

I think we've been moving in that direction for 30 years, not in a straight line, but the trend has definitely been in that direction.

I think the events...

With the pandemic, the policy response and the like amplified some of those trends.

You know, in America, if you own your home, as 60% of people do, and if you own stock, you've had a very good run.

But that means there's a substantial fraction of the country that has not been participating.

Maybe if I can just parachute a bit in on this.

At the Fed, when the economy slows, you cut rates.

And I certainly did that at my time at the Fed.

And the Fed understands that when it lowers rates, it's going to support the labor market, which is good.

And for a lot of people, that is their stake in the economy.

It's their job.

But low rates also lead to higher asset valuations and also leads to some of the trends that you've mentioned in the K-shape economy.

And so I think central bankers understand that, but their toolkit is really pretty limited.

So I think that's how we end up with this dynamic.

It's difficult to predict black swans almost by definition.

So what you try to do is you try to do analysis.

You try to look back at history.