Richard Clarida

Governor Waller, Kevin Warsh, and Rick Reeder.

I know each of them well.

I think each of them would be an effective Fed chair, but they bring different strengths and backgrounds to the role.

Chris Waller is a world-class macroeconomist.

He's also a good forecaster and good communicator.

In the case of Kevin Warsh, Kevin Warsh was a Fed governor.

He's had very thoughtful and interesting things to say about changing the Fed as an institution and in particular thoughts on the balance sheet.

And then finally, Rick Reeder is a very respected legendary investor in financial markets and obviously would bring a lot of connectivity to the bond market.

market.

So all three bring something a lot to the table.

It's really going to be the call of President Trump, and we'll see where he ends up.

I think right now it's pretty even in the betting odds.

I guess right now what would be a surprise, there would be two surprises.

One would be if Kevin Hassett decides and the president decides they do want him at the Fed after a week ago saying no.

And then, of course, there is some probability that Scott Besant does it.

He would obviously be an excellent candidate.

and very effective choice.

But again, they've indicated that the president wants Secretary Besson to stay at the treasury.

But I think among the other three, probably right now, the odds of Waller are a bit lower simply because he doesn't seem to have that connectivity to either the president or the treasury secretary.

Oh, again, not a legal expert.