Richard Clarida

In fact, there's only one example in Fed history of a chair that did not ride off into the sunset.

And a very important Fed chair, a gentleman named Marino Echols, so important, he has a building named after him.

And Echols was an FDR appointee.

And when Harry Truman came in, Harry Truman wanted a different Fed chair.

But Echols stayed on for four years as governor and actually turned out to be a real thorn in Harry Truman's side.

But fast forward to Powell.

You know, Jay Powell's been asked many times, including at the most recent press conference.

what his intentions are when his term as chair is up.

And he's really not commented.

So there's the possibility he could stay on.

I myself think that it's unlikely that he stays on for the remainder of his term, which goes through 2028.

I don't think it's a bad thing.

I think the Bank of England, really beginning under Mervyn King's tenure, actually viewed it as a feature, not a bug, to have close votes, encourage thoughtful dissent.

And as I recall, the governor has been losing sight on some votes there.

Unusual in Fed history.

In fact, to prepare for your show, I went back and looked.

St.

Louis Fed has a great database on this.

And you'd have to go back to 1939, the last time a chair actually lost an FOMC vote, and that was Mariner Eccles.

But G. William Miller and Paul Volcker lost votes on discount rate adjustments.