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Diego Parrilla

๐Ÿ‘ค Speaker
646 total appearances

Appearances Over Time

Podcast Appearances

The MOST Important Thing
Why even our best Models Fail Us: The Illusion of Control Over Randomness

And it's fun.

The MOST Important Thing
Why even our best Models Fail Us: The Illusion of Control Over Randomness

I love the fact that you're calling me a detective because maybe I am.

The MOST Important Thing
Why even our best Models Fail Us: The Illusion of Control Over Randomness

It's like, but why did it happen?

The MOST Important Thing
Why even our best Models Fail Us: The Illusion of Control Over Randomness

And I think this is one of the natural conclusions from exactly what we're discussing.

The MOST Important Thing
Why even our best Models Fail Us: The Illusion of Control Over Randomness

And let me put it in a...

The MOST Important Thing
Why even our best Models Fail Us: The Illusion of Control Over Randomness

in different ways.

The MOST Important Thing
Why even our best Models Fail Us: The Illusion of Control Over Randomness

So if we had some teenagers listening to this, I'll say, let's assume that this is a video game, right?

The MOST Important Thing
Why even our best Models Fail Us: The Illusion of Control Over Randomness

Level one of the video game is, can you make money in nominal terms?

The MOST Important Thing
Why even our best Models Fail Us: The Illusion of Control Over Randomness

And what I mean by that is, hey, Alan, here's 100 euros, make me money.

The MOST Important Thing
Why even our best Models Fail Us: The Illusion of Control Over Randomness

And you come back with 103 euros and you say, hey, Diego, I made you three euros nominal.

The MOST Important Thing
Why even our best Models Fail Us: The Illusion of Control Over Randomness

And that works in a world where inflation is negligible, which is

The MOST Important Thing
Why even our best Models Fail Us: The Illusion of Control Over Randomness

pretty much the game we've played for the last few decades.

The MOST Important Thing
Why even our best Models Fail Us: The Illusion of Control Over Randomness

I mean, I think it would be a fun exercise to look for, you know, in the developed market world, you know, just do a word count of inflation from 2000 to, you know, for a big part of history, other than the obvious cyclical aspects of oil is overheating and whatever.

The MOST Important Thing
Why even our best Models Fail Us: The Illusion of Control Over Randomness

The 2% inflation target, that frog in boiling water, it's, again, made inflation be somewhat negligible.

The MOST Important Thing
Why even our best Models Fail Us: The Illusion of Control Over Randomness

No one would come back to you and say, yeah, Alan, you made me three, but inflation is 2.7.

The MOST Important Thing
Why even our best Models Fail Us: The Illusion of Control Over Randomness

In reality, you just made me 0.3 because benchmarks are nominal.

The MOST Important Thing
Why even our best Models Fail Us: The Illusion of Control Over Randomness

We think nominal.

The MOST Important Thing
Why even our best Models Fail Us: The Illusion of Control Over Randomness

Inflation, by the way, your inflation is different from mine, different from anyone listening to us.

The MOST Important Thing
Why even our best Models Fail Us: The Illusion of Control Over Randomness

Um, so in that sense, level one, making money in nominal terms has worked for a while and fixed income works because, you know, even if I'm paying you in Japan, 0.1%, uh, it's better than, than deflation, of course.

The MOST Important Thing
Why even our best Models Fail Us: The Illusion of Control Over Randomness

And so people were kind of fooled there.