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Diego Parrilla

๐Ÿ‘ค Speaker
646 total appearances

Appearances Over Time

Podcast Appearances

The MOST Important Thing
Why even our best Models Fail Us: The Illusion of Control Over Randomness

Now, level two is, can you make me money in real terms?

The MOST Important Thing
Why even our best Models Fail Us: The Illusion of Control Over Randomness

And I'm not saying real after CPI or some sort of official BS inflation is, can you actually preserve my capital?

The MOST Important Thing
Why even our best Models Fail Us: The Illusion of Control Over Randomness

And once us frogs realize that that game, that effectively to make money in real terms is much harder, and in fact, cash and fixed income

The MOST Important Thing
Why even our best Models Fail Us: The Illusion of Control Over Randomness

in many cases in many parts of the world is deeply into that negative territory, we start jumping off the ball.

The MOST Important Thing
Why even our best Models Fail Us: The Illusion of Control Over Randomness

And this is driven, you know, why did the frog jump?

The MOST Important Thing
Why even our best Models Fail Us: The Illusion of Control Over Randomness

There are two

The MOST Important Thing
Why even our best Models Fail Us: The Illusion of Control Over Randomness

Inflation has two big dimensions.

The MOST Important Thing
Why even our best Models Fail Us: The Illusion of Control Over Randomness

Number one is inflation itself.

The MOST Important Thing
Why even our best Models Fail Us: The Illusion of Control Over Randomness

Two plus two equals four.

The MOST Important Thing
Why even our best Models Fail Us: The Illusion of Control Over Randomness

You print 10% of your monetary base and let's assume that everything gets impacted linearly.

The MOST Important Thing
Why even our best Models Fail Us: The Illusion of Control Over Randomness

That would be a very naive way of thinking.

The MOST Important Thing
Why even our best Models Fail Us: The Illusion of Control Over Randomness

how money printing impacts the world.

The MOST Important Thing
Why even our best Models Fail Us: The Illusion of Control Over Randomness

But let's assume that that's the pace at which gold should go up, okay?

The MOST Important Thing
Why even our best Models Fail Us: The Illusion of Control Over Randomness

I dilute the monetary base and all else being equal, I can't print gold, so it'll go up.

The MOST Important Thing
Why even our best Models Fail Us: The Illusion of Control Over Randomness

But the second dimension is inflation expectations.

The MOST Important Thing
Why even our best Models Fail Us: The Illusion of Control Over Randomness

This is us frogs will jump off the boat because we basically saw, oh, the temperature is going up by a lot.

The MOST Important Thing
Why even our best Models Fail Us: The Illusion of Control Over Randomness

And I, you know, but if they tell you, don't worry, the heat is off.

The MOST Important Thing
Why even our best Models Fail Us: The Illusion of Control Over Randomness

It was a one off.

The MOST Important Thing
Why even our best Models Fail Us: The Illusion of Control Over Randomness

It's temporary.

The MOST Important Thing
Why even our best Models Fail Us: The Illusion of Control Over Randomness

It's, you know, some frogs might stay in.