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Diego Parrilla

๐Ÿ‘ค Speaker
646 total appearances

Appearances Over Time

Podcast Appearances

The MOST Important Thing
Why even our best Models Fail Us: The Illusion of Control Over Randomness

But when you realize that, you know, the inflation expectations, the temperature is going to increase like crazy, we'll start jumping.

The MOST Important Thing
Why even our best Models Fail Us: The Illusion of Control Over Randomness

And when you jump off fixed income.

The MOST Important Thing
Why even our best Models Fail Us: The Illusion of Control Over Randomness

And yields start going up.

The MOST Important Thing
Why even our best Models Fail Us: The Illusion of Control Over Randomness

And you have a problem because your outstanding debt is just too high.

The MOST Important Thing
Why even our best Models Fail Us: The Illusion of Control Over Randomness

And that starts to create reflexivity problems.

The MOST Important Thing
Why even our best Models Fail Us: The Illusion of Control Over Randomness

I mean, think about what your beautiful country and mine went through in the European crisis, right?

The MOST Important Thing
Why even our best Models Fail Us: The Illusion of Control Over Randomness

Spain was sort of the last piece of the dice of the domino, right?

The MOST Important Thing
Why even our best Models Fail Us: The Illusion of Control Over Randomness

whereby once the, at the time, the 10-year bono was a 7.5%,

The MOST Important Thing
Why even our best Models Fail Us: The Illusion of Control Over Randomness

That was considered the point where the amount of money that goes into servicing debt, it's so high that you have no room to do anything else, and it spirals out of control, and that's why we have to bail out a bunch of guys.

The MOST Important Thing
Why even our best Models Fail Us: The Illusion of Control Over Randomness

And so that reflexivity of the process, as frogs jump out, effectively leads to what I think is the biggest acronym for the next decade, and to your point on the next misconceptions, which is yield curve control.

The MOST Important Thing
Why even our best Models Fail Us: The Illusion of Control Over Randomness

And yield curve control, unlike quantitative easing, quantitative easing is about, hello, Mr. Powell, here's 120 billion a month, go and spend it.

The MOST Important Thing
Why even our best Models Fail Us: The Illusion of Control Over Randomness

And he bought whatever he wanted, bonds and affected prices of things.

The MOST Important Thing
Why even our best Models Fail Us: The Illusion of Control Over Randomness

Yield curve control is different.

The MOST Important Thing
Why even our best Models Fail Us: The Illusion of Control Over Randomness

It's like, hello, Alan, the 10-year treasury is not going to go worse than 5%.

The MOST Important Thing
Why even our best Models Fail Us: The Illusion of Control Over Randomness

Why?

The MOST Important Thing
Why even our best Models Fail Us: The Illusion of Control Over Randomness

Because I said so, what are you going to do about it?

The MOST Important Thing
Why even our best Models Fail Us: The Illusion of Control Over Randomness

Print infinite amount of dollars to hold it.

The MOST Important Thing
Why even our best Models Fail Us: The Illusion of Control Over Randomness

And

The MOST Important Thing
Why even our best Models Fail Us: The Illusion of Control Over Randomness

And at that point, you know, and this is where the chess game is being played, at least in my head.

The MOST Important Thing
Why even our best Models Fail Us: The Illusion of Control Over Randomness

You know, you have that.