Domenico Montanaro

Or what are the reasons?

I do want to also zero in on something you kind of mentioned earlier, Domenico, about the idea that there just are fewer competitive districts in the House.

I think that's going to be something that we gloss over a lot as we kind of zero in on the 36 or so races that we're watching.

That is a tiny number of races to decide the House when you consider the fact that there's 435 members of the House and basically everything hinges on just this few dozen, which is

It's a big change from even just as recent as a few years ago.

I don't know.

I just feel like that is something that doesn't get talked about very much when we talk about control of the House, just how few districts are actually competitive these days.

It's so interesting.

I feel like eight months ago, it did feel like that was going to be the story of this midterms was this kind of unprecedented redistricting wave that President Trump set off by asking Texas to redraw its maps to advantage Republicans last summer.

But basically, we watched like roughly a dozen states

talk about redrawing, actually redraw, you know, have courts throw out their maps.

There was all of this stuff happening both in Democratic and Republican led states.

And the net result actually seems to be sort of a wash.

I think that is the most shocking part about this, I feel like, is that most analysts at this point seem to think that the great redistricting war of 2025 is not

going to actually decide who controls the House in 2026.

The only caveat I'll say, though, is that if the Supreme Court does strike down a key part of the Voting Rights Act this year, it's possible other states, especially in the South, could redraw districts and change things again.

But at this point, it just seems to be a lot less of a factor than we thought it was going to be six months ago.

Yeah, I mean, we are just a couple of weeks away, to be clear, from primary elections.

Arkansas, Texas and North Carolina all vote on March 3rd.

That is so soon.