The midterm map is beginning to take shape
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What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
Hey there, it's the NPR Politics Podcast for Monday, February 9th, 2026. I'm Miles Parks. I cover voting. I'm Stephen Fowler. I cover politics. And I'm Domenico Montanaro, senior political editor and correspondent. And today on the show, a midterms temperature check. We are just somehow only a month away from the first primary elections of this midterm season. And already a record number of House lawmakers have decided that they are not running again. So, Domenico, I want to start big picture here. Lay out the landscape for the Senate and the House right now as we see it.
Well, you know, there are, you know, about a third of the Senate is up every two years. They have six year terms, but only about 10 seats this year that are truly competitive seats. And because of some Democratic recruiting targets, they feel a little bit better about their potential capability of being able to take over the Senate. But it's really a long shot at this point because Republicans have a three-seat majority and Democrats would need to pick up a gain of four seats to be able to take control of the Senate. because Trump is president and J.D. Vance as vice president comes in to break ties.
OK, so they would need to win basically every seat they currently have and then pick up four other Republican seats to pick up the Senate. Is that right?
They need a net gain of four. So between wins and losses of their own and wins and losses of Republicans, they need a net gain of four. And what about the House? Well, the House, you know, it's a razor thin majority for Republicans right now. You know, Republicans can only afford to lose two seats before they're looking at being back in the minority. And that goes a lot more with the national mood. Republicans have had a huge advantage because of gerrymandering over the years where a lot of the districts in the country lean a little bit more toward the right. But that gap has actually been closing in recent years. So that gap is not quite as big, but we have fewer and fewer competitive districts. So the universe of competitive seats is smaller than it ever has been.
But long story short, things are starting to tip in Democrats direction because midterm elections are usually a referendum on the president.
What is the current landscape of the Senate and House races?
Trump has had a really bad month. He's been under. 40% for his job approval rating in our NPR PBS News Marist poll since November. Affordability still a big issue in the country. People feeling like Trump is not focused on that as much as he should be. That has a tendency to depress the base. So you don't get as many people to turn out to vote. And Republicans have had issues turning out conservatives when Trump's not on the ballot. And independents are lining up with Democrats on almost every issue in very strong ways. So that makes it really hard when in those swing districts, Independence are so important. And they're, you know, Trump is really proving toxic to independence.
Right. So there's all these indicators pointing seemingly towards Democrats right now. And another one of those indicators, right, Stephen, is retirements, because more Republican incumbents at this point have announced that they're going to not seek their seat in 2026. Can you tell us more about that?
Yeah, so I, one of many spreadsheets that I have, have a retirement tracker that you can look at online that I keep updating every day, it almost feels like. Right now we're up to 63 current members of Congress who say that they don't plan to return to their seat next year. Some of them are retirements, some of them are people who are in the House trying to run for Senate, and some of them are people trying to go back to their states to run as governor. And you have also one House member running for Attorney General of their state. But this is notable for a few reasons. One, this is a record number of people who say they're not coming back. They are announcing it a record early amount of time before Election Day, and that doesn't even account for the fact that many of these incumbents might lose in the primaries or in the general election.
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Chapters
4 chapters
1
What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
0:04–2:12
2
What is the current landscape of the Senate and House races?
2:12–12:07
3
What factors are influencing voter turnout in the upcoming midterms?
12:07–16:04
4
How many incumbents are retiring and what does it mean for the elections?
16:04–22:46