Domenico Montanaro

In previous years, the party with these kinds of numbers would have been thinking about a pretty big wave, you know, but waves nowadays are a lot lower than in the past because

There are just way fewer competitive districts.

And while Democrats do have the advantage and some key groups who vote with them are fired up, especially white voters with college degrees, other Democratic pillar groups, though, are not as much.

Young voters, black voters, Latinos, for example.

They're all among the lowest groups in saying that they are very enthusiastic to vote.

And we know midterms are much lower turnout affairs than presidential elections.

On average, we see about a 30 percent drop off.

So right now, Democrats, certainly the favorites to take back the House, but they have a lot of work to do to shore all that up.

We saw an example of Trump's control over the MAGA base last night in his targeting of Republican state senators in Indiana who defied him on redistricting.

Most of them lost.

It's one reason why so many Republican elected officials don't cross him.

But general elections aren't primaries, and Trump has been really toxic with swing voters.

His overall approval rating is the worst it's ever been in our poll, just 37% approve while 59% disapprove.

That can be a real albatross for Republican candidates across the country.

especially when key groups appear to be softening or turning away from Trump.

Take, for example, people who make less than $50,000 a year, white men and women without college degrees, rural voters.

Shortly after Trump was sworn into office, they all had a positive job approval rating of him.

Now that's flipped, and more in each group disapproves of the job that he's doing.

Key crossover groups like Latinos and young voters have all moved heavily away from him, and Republicans have the added problem of struggling to turn out Trump's base when he's not on the ballot.

Well, if you think about it, gas prices seem to be the catalyst for Trump's economic numbers nosediving even farther than where they've been.