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Downtown Josh Brown

👤 Speaker
1324 total appearances

Appearances Over Time

Podcast Appearances

The Compound and Friends
What if It’s Still Early? With Denise Chisholm

Yeah.

The Compound and Friends
What if It’s Still Early? With Denise Chisholm

And so but I don't think that that's where the productivity is coming from quite yet.

The Compound and Friends
What if It’s Still Early? With Denise Chisholm

But I do think that wage growth has been restrained.

The Compound and Friends
What if It’s Still Early? With Denise Chisholm

Productivity is on the uptrend.

The Compound and Friends
What if It’s Still Early? With Denise Chisholm

And that usually makes corporate America more profitable.

The Compound and Friends
What if It’s Still Early? With Denise Chisholm

Again, back to just relationships.

The Compound and Friends
What if It’s Still Early? With Denise Chisholm

Right.

The Compound and Friends
What if It’s Still Early? With Denise Chisholm

And then you add in that fact, too.

The Compound and Friends
What if It’s Still Early? With Denise Chisholm

So you go, OK, so then these are the expectations.

The Compound and Friends
What if It’s Still Early? With Denise Chisholm

You know, they continue.

The Compound and Friends
What if It’s Still Early? With Denise Chisholm

But yet we're seeing this persistent fear in the equity market and this multiple compression saying that some people are already pricing in the fact that it won't continue.

The Compound and Friends
What if It’s Still Early? With Denise Chisholm

meaning that there's already the fear that there are these risks.

The Compound and Friends
What if It’s Still Early? With Denise Chisholm

So you end up in the same situation where the forward drivers do suggest that it's more likely than not that profit margins are higher rather than lower, and the market doesn't believe it.

The Compound and Friends
What if It’s Still Early? With Denise Chisholm

That's correct.

The Compound and Friends
What if It’s Still Early? With Denise Chisholm

I think it's a unique setup in the sense that there's been a big divergence between cap-weighted earnings growth and equal-weighted earnings growth.

The Compound and Friends
What if It’s Still Early? With Denise Chisholm

And while cap-weighted earnings growth has been, you know,

The Compound and Friends
What if It’s Still Early? With Denise Chisholm

fine and good for the last three years, equal weighted earnings growth has actually been contractionary from a duration perspective.

The Compound and Friends
What if It’s Still Early? With Denise Chisholm

Correct.

The Compound and Friends
What if It’s Still Early? With Denise Chisholm

And I would say not only the same earnings boost, we're actually seeing earnings decline.

The Compound and Friends
What if It’s Still Early? With Denise Chisholm

From not a magnitude perspective like we saw in other recessions, but from a duration perspective, it was as long as those recessions.