The MOST Important Thing
Ep 6 - Beyond Diversification: Insights from Sebastian Page on Finance, Leadership, and Resilience
Just in terms of the theme of this podcast, Sebastian, is the most important thing.
The MOST Important Thing
Ep 6 - Beyond Diversification: Insights from Sebastian Page on Finance, Leadership, and Resilience
It's supposed to be evergreen in nature.
The MOST Important Thing
Ep 6 - Beyond Diversification: Insights from Sebastian Page on Finance, Leadership, and Resilience
So my aim really is that a graduate, a young professional looks at this maybe in four or five years and says, yeah, I could take something from this.
The MOST Important Thing
Ep 6 - Beyond Diversification: Insights from Sebastian Page on Finance, Leadership, and Resilience
This is really valuable.
The MOST Important Thing
Ep 6 - Beyond Diversification: Insights from Sebastian Page on Finance, Leadership, and Resilience
So I know that's a high bar for finance now.
The MOST Important Thing
Ep 6 - Beyond Diversification: Insights from Sebastian Page on Finance, Leadership, and Resilience
because everything is so dynamic.
The MOST Important Thing
Ep 6 - Beyond Diversification: Insights from Sebastian Page on Finance, Leadership, and Resilience
But if you were to say your most important thing from a portfolio construction perspective, what would you lean towards?
The MOST Important Thing
Ep 6 - Beyond Diversification: Insights from Sebastian Page on Finance, Leadership, and Resilience
Listening to you there, I was thinking about my own kind of journey from, you know, the mean variance, which is looking at the first two moments of distribution, the mean and the variance.
The MOST Important Thing
Ep 6 - Beyond Diversification: Insights from Sebastian Page on Finance, Leadership, and Resilience
And your book is covered in, you know, references to skewness, kurtosis, the third and fourth moments of the distribution.
The MOST Important Thing
Ep 6 - Beyond Diversification: Insights from Sebastian Page on Finance, Leadership, and Resilience
For people who are lost and don't know what I'm speaking about, we'll have some more information on this in the notes.
The MOST Important Thing
Ep 6 - Beyond Diversification: Insights from Sebastian Page on Finance, Leadership, and Resilience
But you also reference views a lot.
The MOST Important Thing
Ep 6 - Beyond Diversification: Insights from Sebastian Page on Finance, Leadership, and Resilience
This is the alpha perhaps where, you know, if we just want the market, we can buy the index.
The MOST Important Thing
Ep 6 - Beyond Diversification: Insights from Sebastian Page on Finance, Leadership, and Resilience
But perhaps what is alpha?
The MOST Important Thing
Ep 6 - Beyond Diversification: Insights from Sebastian Page on Finance, Leadership, and Resilience
It's either stock selection, superior stock selection or market timing.
The MOST Important Thing
Ep 6 - Beyond Diversification: Insights from Sebastian Page on Finance, Leadership, and Resilience
We know market timing doesn't really work.
The MOST Important Thing
Ep 6 - Beyond Diversification: Insights from Sebastian Page on Finance, Leadership, and Resilience
So maybe it's in the asset selection then.
The MOST Important Thing
Ep 6 - Beyond Diversification: Insights from Sebastian Page on Finance, Leadership, and Resilience
in relation to asset allocation, where you're starting with your, you're using some mean variance, but then you're imposing your views.
The MOST Important Thing
Ep 6 - Beyond Diversification: Insights from Sebastian Page on Finance, Leadership, and Resilience
And that's back to our, what we started talking about to start.
The MOST Important Thing
Ep 6 - Beyond Diversification: Insights from Sebastian Page on Finance, Leadership, and Resilience
The views are conditions on what's happening today.
The MOST Important Thing
Ep 6 - Beyond Diversification: Insights from Sebastian Page on Finance, Leadership, and Resilience
So it sounds to me that you have a Bayesian view of asset allocation.