Dr. Dillon Amaya

The difference, I think, between an atmospheric heat wave and an ocean heat wave that people might be interested in is that, you know, an ocean heat wave lasts a lot longer.

It can last months, seasons, possibly even years.

You know, whereas on land, we might experience a heat wave for a few days.

It really depends, right?

There are some fish that are highly mobile.

They can get out of the way.

They can go to their preferred thermal habitat, and they'll be fine.

They have high adaptation capability.

But then there are other things that are more rooted to the spot, things like corals or seagrasses or what we call demersal or benthic fish species, things that live on the seafloor like crabs or lobsters.

These things aren't mobile or aren't particularly mobile, and they could really be impacted by strong ocean heating driven by El Nino.

That's a really interesting question.

Certainly climate tipping points are something that we're concerned about in terms of how climate change could irreversibly impact the way that we live our lives.

I would say that right now, this El Nino is probably not going to be the primary driver that gets us over the edge on some of these tipping points.

But as climate continues to change, you know, a really big signal, a really big shock to the system, like a future strong El Nino event, you know, potentially could be the thing that pushes that ball over the hump.

No, definitely not.

It's not a weather phenomenon.

I always go back to thinking about that Chris Farley skit from Saturday Night Live in the late 90s, where he refers to El Nino as this big tropical storm.

And it's not like that.

It's not a hurricane.

It's not something that we can watch coming from afar.