Dr. Marcel Dirsus

And I think in European capitals like Berlin, but also in D.C., for example, the thinking is, OK, if we empower the Ukrainians too much and Vladimir Putin thinks he might lose the war and subsequently might lose power, he may use nuclear weapons. So I think we've got a bit of a paradox when it comes to Russia currently.

And I think in European capitals like Berlin, but also in D.C., for example, the thinking is, OK, if we empower the Ukrainians too much and Vladimir Putin thinks he might lose the war and subsequently might lose power, he may use nuclear weapons. So I think we've got a bit of a paradox when it comes to Russia currently.

Yeah, I think a lot of the time we can, particularly with cases that are not quite as bad. So like I said, somebody like Kim Jong-un, somebody like Assad, it's very difficult. And I think outsiders can have an influence, but it's going to cost a lot. It might lead to dead soldiers. It's going to be very costly. It's going to be very bloody.

Yeah, I think a lot of the time we can, particularly with cases that are not quite as bad. So like I said, somebody like Kim Jong-un, somebody like Assad, it's very difficult. And I think outsiders can have an influence, but it's going to cost a lot. It might lead to dead soldiers. It's going to be very costly. It's going to be very bloody.

Yeah, I think a lot of the time we can, particularly with cases that are not quite as bad. So like I said, somebody like Kim Jong-un, somebody like Assad, it's very difficult. And I think outsiders can have an influence, but it's going to cost a lot. It might lead to dead soldiers. It's going to be very costly. It's going to be very bloody.

So that is something that policymakers have to think about long and hard. But when it comes to some regimes that are more in the middle, right? So they're not the worst of the worst. Maybe they haven't existed for multiple decades. Maybe they're not quite as powerful. There are things that we can do. And the way that I look at this is essentially three parts. So you want to weaken the incumbent.

So that is something that policymakers have to think about long and hard. But when it comes to some regimes that are more in the middle, right? So they're not the worst of the worst. Maybe they haven't existed for multiple decades. Maybe they're not quite as powerful. There are things that we can do. And the way that I look at this is essentially three parts. So you want to weaken the incumbent.

So that is something that policymakers have to think about long and hard. But when it comes to some regimes that are more in the middle, right? So they're not the worst of the worst. Maybe they haven't existed for multiple decades. Maybe they're not quite as powerful. There are things that we can do. And the way that I look at this is essentially three parts. So you want to weaken the incumbent.

You want to strengthen alternative elites. And you want to empower the masses. Because if you do not empower the masses, and there are a variety of ways to do it, you risk a scenario where basically one dictator walks out the front gate and another walks in on the other side of the palace. And that can mean sanctions to make it more difficult for the regime to redistribute gains.

You want to strengthen alternative elites. And you want to empower the masses. Because if you do not empower the masses, and there are a variety of ways to do it, you risk a scenario where basically one dictator walks out the front gate and another walks in on the other side of the palace. And that can mean sanctions to make it more difficult for the regime to redistribute gains.

You want to strengthen alternative elites. And you want to empower the masses. Because if you do not empower the masses, and there are a variety of ways to do it, you risk a scenario where basically one dictator walks out the front gate and another walks in on the other side of the palace. And that can mean sanctions to make it more difficult for the regime to redistribute gains.

It can mean running workshops. It can mean making sure their communication networks stay open. It can mean training people in strategy. There's a bunch of things that you can do. that are very cheap and where the outcome is unlikely to be catastrophic. If you run a workshop for independent journalists somewhere in Central Asia, it is unlikely to lead to a million deaths.

It can mean running workshops. It can mean making sure their communication networks stay open. It can mean training people in strategy. There's a bunch of things that you can do. that are very cheap and where the outcome is unlikely to be catastrophic. If you run a workshop for independent journalists somewhere in Central Asia, it is unlikely to lead to a million deaths.

It can mean running workshops. It can mean making sure their communication networks stay open. It can mean training people in strategy. There's a bunch of things that you can do. that are very cheap and where the outcome is unlikely to be catastrophic. If you run a workshop for independent journalists somewhere in Central Asia, it is unlikely to lead to a million deaths.

Maybe it happens, but it's highly unlikely.

Maybe it happens, but it's highly unlikely.

Maybe it happens, but it's highly unlikely.

When it comes to some of these more drastic measures, right, when it comes to things like, do you support assassinations? Do you provide weapons to regime opponents? Do you encourage sabotage? Do you perhaps go to war? I'm extremely skeptical because I know that historically speaking, a lot of the time it has gone wrong.

When it comes to some of these more drastic measures, right, when it comes to things like, do you support assassinations? Do you provide weapons to regime opponents? Do you encourage sabotage? Do you perhaps go to war? I'm extremely skeptical because I know that historically speaking, a lot of the time it has gone wrong.

When it comes to some of these more drastic measures, right, when it comes to things like, do you support assassinations? Do you provide weapons to regime opponents? Do you encourage sabotage? Do you perhaps go to war? I'm extremely skeptical because I know that historically speaking, a lot of the time it has gone wrong.