Dwarkesh Patel

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Cool, thanks, Max.

Thanks for having me.

Dude, you're great at this.

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People have proposed different ways of charting how much progress you've made towards full AGI.

Because if you can come up with some line, then you can see where that line intersects with AGI and where that would happen on the x-axis.

And so people have proposed, oh, it's like the education level.

Like we had a high schooler and then they went to college with RL and they're going to get a PhD.

I don't like that one.

Or then they'll propose horizon length, so maybe they can do tasks that take a minute, they can do those autonomously, then they can autonomously do tasks that take a human an hour, a human a week, etc.

How do you think about what is the relevant y-axis here?

How should we think about how AI is making progress?

I wonder with radiologists,

I'm totally speculating.

I have no idea what the actual workflow of a radiologist involves.

But one analogy that might be applicable is when WAMOs are first being rolled out, there'd be a person sitting in the front seat, and you just had to have them there to make sure that if something went really wrong, they're there to monitor.

And I think even today, people are still watching to make sure things are going well.