Dwarkesh Patel

has this hollowed out manufacturing base.

But it's much better to have industries which are left behind so that the whole economy as a whole

can be more dynamic and move on than the Soviet Union, where the entire thing became a rust belt, right?

Because they couldn't move on.

Speaking of plastics, I didn't realize before preparing for this lecture the overwhelming role that oil played in first explaining why the Soviet Union was able to sustain itself for so long and then why it collapsed.

So—

by the late 50s, Soviet growth rates are already starting to go down, especially compared to the post-war boom that America's experiencing.

And in 59, they discovered these massive oil fields in Siberia.

And then from 73 to 85, I think,

80% of Soviet Union's hard currency earnings are just from oil.

And they use this because essential planning can't produce even grain, let alone advanced technology.

They use this to import a bunch of stuff to sustain the Red Army, to sustain the population, to subsidize Eastern Europe.

And then, of course, prices collapsed in 1985.

Do you think that if the Siberian reserves aren't found in the late 50s, that it's possible that the Soviet Union would have collapsed 30 years prior?

Mm-hmm.

So after the Soviet Union collapses—

There was a period when Putin was still winning somewhat free elections.

And so if you look at why Russia's economy recovers and why Putin is so popular in the 2000s, from 2000 to 2008, oil goes from $10 a barrel to $140 a barrel.

And this goes to your point about we give credit or blame to political leaders for often what are just long-run macro trends.

Yeah.