Dwarkesh

So start right now.

go up to 2027 when there's AGI, 2028 when there's potentially superintelligence, show on a month-by-month level what happened.

Kind of in fiction writing terms, make it feel earned.

So that's the easy part.

The hard part is we also want to be right.

So we're trying to forecast how things are going to go, what speed they're going to go at,

We know that, in general, the median outcome for a forecast like this is being totally humiliated when everything goes completely differently.

And if you read our scenario, you're definitely not going to expect us to be the exception to that trend.

The thing that gives me optimism is Daniel, back in 2021, wrote kind of the prequel to this scenario called What 2026 Looks Like.

It's his forecast for the next five years of AI progress.

He got it almost exactly right.

Like, you should stop this podcast right now, and you should go and read this document.

It's amazing.

Kind of looks like you asked ChatGPT, summarize the past five years of AI progress, and you got something with like a couple of hallucinations, but basically well-intentioned and correct.

So when Daniel said he was doing this sequel, I was very excited.

really wanted to see where it was going.

It goes to some pretty crazy places, and I'm excited to talk about it more today.

I think read the document and decide which of us is right.

I was asked to help with the writing, and I was already somewhat familiar with the people on the project, and many of them were kind of my heroes.

So Daniel I knew both because I'd written a blog post about his opinions before.