Dwarkesh

speaker

1,722 appearances 5 recordings 1 series first heard Apr 2025 last heard 25 Nov

Dwarkesh’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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recordings per month · last 12 months

Recordings per month over the last 12 months — 2 in all, peaking in Nov 2025 with 1.

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We're trying to do two things here.

First of all is we just want to have a concrete scenario at all.

So you have all these people, Sam Altman, Dario Amadei, Elon Musk saying, going to have AGI in three years, super intelligence in five years.

And people just think that's crazy because right now we have chatbots that's able to do like,

A Google search, not much more than that in a lot of ways.

And so people ask, how is it going to be AGI in three years?

What we wanted to do is provide a story, provide the transitional fossils.

So start right now.

go up to 2027 when there's AGI, 2028 when there's potentially superintelligence, show on a month-by-month level what happened.

Kind of in fiction writing terms, make it feel earned.

So that's the easy part.

The hard part is we also want to be right.

So we're trying to forecast how things are going to go, what speed they're going to go at,

We know that, in general, the median outcome for a forecast like this is being totally humiliated when everything goes completely differently.

And if you read our scenario, you're definitely not going to expect us to be the exception to that trend.

The thing that gives me optimism is Daniel, back in 2021, wrote kind of the prequel to this scenario called What 2026 Looks Like.

It's his forecast for the next five years of AI progress.

He got it almost exactly right.

Like, you should stop this podcast right now, and you should go and read this document.

It's amazing.

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