Dwarkesh

Our theory is that they are, to some degree consciously, to some degree accidentally, working towards this intelligence explosion.

where the AIs themselves can start taking over some of the AI research, move faster.

So 2025, slightly better coding.

2026, slightly better agents, slightly better coding.

And then we focus on, and we name the scenario after 2027, because that is when this starts to pay off.

The intelligence explosion gets into full swing.

The agents become good enough to help with, at the beginning, not really do, but help with some of the AI research.

So we introduced this idea called the R&D progress multiplier.

So how many months of progress without the AIs do you get in one month of progress with all of these new AIs helping with the intelligence explosion?

So 2027...

We start with, I can't remember if it's literally start with or by March or something, a five times multiplier for algorithmic progress.

party and it worked yeah our scenario focuses on coding in particular because we think coding is what starts the intelligence explosion so we are less interested in questions of like how do you mop up the last few things that are uniquely human compared to when can you start coding in a way that helps the human AI researchers speed up their AI research and then if you've helped them speed up the AI research enough is that enough to with some ridiculous speed multiplier 10 times 100 times mop up all of these other things

I'm a little confused to hear you say that because when I have seen people predicting AI milestones like Katya Grace's expert surveys, they have almost always been too pessimistic from a point of view of how fast AI will advance.

So, like, I think the 2022 survey –

I mean, they actually said that things that had already happened would take like 10 years to happen.

The survey, it might have been 2023.

It was like six months before GPT-3, GPT-4 came out.

And there were things that GPT-3 or 4 or whichever one of them it was did that it did in six months.

They were still predicting like five or 10 years from.

I'm sure Daniel is going to have a more detailed answer, but I absolutely reject the premise that everybody has always been too optimistic.