Dwarkesh
speaker
1,722 appearances
5 recordings
1 series
first heard Apr 2025
last heard 25 Nov
Dwarkesh’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
Trend
recordings per month · last 12 monthsRecordings per month over the last 12 months — 2 in all, peaking in Nov 2025 with 1.
Appearances
So, like, I think the 2022 survey –
I mean, they actually said that things that had already happened would take like 10 years to happen.
The survey, it might have been 2023.
It was like six months before GPT-3, GPT-4 came out.
And there were things that GPT-3 or 4 or whichever one of them it was did that it did in six months.
They were still predicting like five or 10 years from.
I'm sure Daniel is going to have a more detailed answer, but I absolutely reject the premise that everybody has always been too optimistic.
We don't have to guess about aggregate opinion.
We can look at Metaculous.
Metaculous, I think their timeline was 2040 back... No, it was like 2050 back in 2020.
It gradually went down to like 2040, two or three years ago.
Now it's at 2030, so it's barely ahead of us.
Again, that may turn out to be wrong, but it does look like the Metaculans overall have been...
too pessimistic, thinking too long-term rather than too optimistic.
And I think that's like the closest thing we have to a neutral aggregator where we're not cherry-picking things.
Yeah, and then the example I gave was that humans also can't do this.
So for me, the...
Most salient example is etymology of words.
We have all of these words in English that are very similar, like happy versus hapless, happen, perhaps.
And we never think about them unless you read an etymology dictionary and then, oh, obviously these all come from some old root that has to mean luck or occurrence or something like that.
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