Dwarkesh

I think writing about it is important.

But I don't know, you always regret that you're not the person who's the technical alignment genius who's able to solve everything.

And getting to work with people like these and potentially make a difference just seemed like a great opportunity.

What I didn't realize was that I also learned a huge amount.

I try to read...

most of what's going on in the world of AI, but it's this very low bandwidth thing.

And getting to talk to somebody who's thought about it as much as anyone in the world was just amazing.

makes me really understand these things about how is AI going to learn quickly?

You need all of this deep engagement with the underlying territory.

And I feel like I got that.

It wasn't even just changing my mind.

Getting to read the scenario for the first time, it obviously wasn't written up at this point.

It was a giant, giant spreadsheet.

I've been thinking about this for like a decade, decade and a half now.

And it just made it so much more concrete to have a specific story like, oh, yeah, that's why we're so worried about the arms race with China.

Obviously, we would get an arms race with China in that situation.

And like aside from just the people, getting to read the scenario really sold me.

This is something that needs to get out there more.

So beginning of the forecast mostly focuses on agents.

So we think they're going to start with agency training, expand the time horizons, get coding going well.