Dwarkesh
speaker
1,722 appearances
5 recordings
1 series
first heard Apr 2025
last heard 25 Nov
Dwarkesh’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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recordings per month · last 12 monthsRecordings per month over the last 12 months — 2 in all, peaking in Nov 2025 with 1.
Appearances
I've been thinking about this for like a decade, decade and a half now.
And it just made it so much more concrete to have a specific story like, oh, yeah, that's why we're so worried about the arms race with China.
Obviously, we would get an arms race with China in that situation.
And like aside from just the people, getting to read the scenario really sold me.
This is something that needs to get out there more.
So beginning of the forecast mostly focuses on agents.
So we think they're going to start with agency training, expand the time horizons, get coding going well.
Our theory is that they are, to some degree consciously, to some degree accidentally, working towards this intelligence explosion.
where the AIs themselves can start taking over some of the AI research, move faster.
So 2025, slightly better coding.
2026, slightly better agents, slightly better coding.
And then we focus on, and we name the scenario after 2027, because that is when this starts to pay off.
The intelligence explosion gets into full swing.
The agents become good enough to help with, at the beginning, not really do, but help with some of the AI research.
So we introduced this idea called the R&D progress multiplier.
So how many months of progress without the AIs do you get in one month of progress with all of these new AIs helping with the intelligence explosion?
So 2027...
We start with, I can't remember if it's literally start with or by March or something, a five times multiplier for algorithmic progress.
party and it worked yeah our scenario focuses on coding in particular because we think coding is what starts the intelligence explosion so we are less interested in questions of like how do you mop up the last few things that are uniquely human compared to when can you start coding in a way that helps the human AI researchers speed up their AI research and then if you've helped them speed up the AI research enough is that enough to with some ridiculous speed multiplier 10 times 100 times mop up all of these other things
I'm a little confused to hear you say that because when I have seen people predicting AI milestones like Katya Grace's expert surveys, they have almost always been too pessimistic from a point of view of how fast AI will advance.
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