Dwarkesh

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1,722 appearances 5 recordings 1 series first heard Apr 2025 last heard 25 Nov

Dwarkesh’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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Recordings per month over the last 12 months — 2 in all, peaking in Nov 2025 with 1.

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Dwarkesh Podcast · AI 2027: month-by-month model of intelligence explosion — Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo · 3 Apr 2025 podcast

So if you're producing a million of something, you're probably getting very, very good at it.

The question we were arguing about is, can you produce a million units a month after a year?

And for context, I think Tesla produces like a quarter of that in terms of cars or something.

This is an amazing scale up in a year.

Yeah.

And the argument that we went through was something like, so it's got to first get factories.

OpenAI is already worth more than all of the car companies in the US except Tesla combined.

So if OpenAI today wanted to buy all the car factories in the U.S.

except Tesla, start using them to produce humanoid robots, they could.

Obviously not a good value proposition today, but it's just obvious and overdetermined that in the future when they have superintelligence and they want them, they can start buying up a lot of factories.

How fast can they convert these car factories to robot factories?

So fastest conversion we were able to find in history was World War II.

They suddenly wanted a lot of bombers.

So they bought up, in some cases bought up, in other cases got the car companies to produce new factories.

But they bought up the car factories, converted them to bomber factories.

That took about three years from the time when they first decided to start this process to the time when the factories were producing a bomber an hour.

we think it will potentially take less with superintelligence because, first of all, if you look at the history of this process, despite this being the fastest anybody has ever done this, it was actually kind of a comedy of errors.

They made a bunch of really silly mistakes in this process.

If you actually have something that...

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