Dwarkesh

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1,722 appearances 5 recordings 1 series first heard Apr 2025 last heard 25 Nov

Dwarkesh’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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Dwarkesh Podcast · AI 2027: month-by-month model of intelligence explosion — Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo · 3 Apr 2025 podcast

even just doesn't have the normal human bureaucratic problems.

And we do think that this will be done in the middle of an arms race with China.

So the government will be kind of moving things through.

And then the super intelligences will be good at the logistical issues, navigating bureaucracies.

So we estimated maybe if everything goes right, we can do this three times faster than the bomber conversions in World War II.

So that's about a year.

Yeah, but the car factories of that time were also much less sophisticated than the car factories of our time.

First of all, I agree if there's only one way to do something, that makes it much harder and maybe that one way takes very long.

we're assuming that there may be more than one way to cure cancer, more than one way to do all of these things, and they'll be working on finding the one that is least bottlenecked.

Part of the reason I realize I spent too long talking about that robot example, but we do think that there are going to be

getting a lot of physical world things done very quickly.

Once you have a million robots a month, you can actually do a lot of physical world experiments.

We look at examples of people trying to get entire economies off the ground very quickly.

So, for example, China post-Dang.

I don't know.

Would you have predicted that...

20, 30 years after being kind of a communist basket case, they can actually be doing this really cutting edge bio research.

Like I realize that's a much weaker thing than we're positing, but it was done just with the human brain with a lot fewer resources than we're talking about.

Same issue with like, let's say Elon Musk and SpaceX.

I think in the year 2000, we would not have thought that somebody could move two times, five times faster than NASA.

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