Dwarkesh

OpenAI is already worth more than all of the car companies in the US except Tesla combined.

So if OpenAI today wanted to buy all the car factories in the U.S.

except Tesla, start using them to produce humanoid robots, they could.

Obviously not a good value proposition today, but it's just obvious and overdetermined that in the future when they have superintelligence and they want them, they can start buying up a lot of factories.

How fast can they convert these car factories to robot factories?

So fastest conversion we were able to find in history was World War II.

They suddenly wanted a lot of bombers.

So they bought up, in some cases bought up, in other cases got the car companies to produce new factories.

But they bought up the car factories, converted them to bomber factories.

That took about three years from the time when they first decided to start this process to the time when the factories were producing a bomber an hour.

we think it will potentially take less with superintelligence because, first of all, if you look at the history of this process, despite this being the fastest anybody has ever done this, it was actually kind of a comedy of errors.

They made a bunch of really silly mistakes in this process.

If you actually have something that...

even just doesn't have the normal human bureaucratic problems.

And we do think that this will be done in the middle of an arms race with China.

So the government will be kind of moving things through.

And then the super intelligences will be good at the logistical issues, navigating bureaucracies.

So we estimated maybe if everything goes right, we can do this three times faster than the bomber conversions in World War II.

So that's about a year.

Yeah, but the car factories of that time were also much less sophisticated than the car factories of our time.