Ed Elson

Is that still true?

Now, just turning to the stock market, fell pretty precipitously.

And it's kind of interesting why that is happening.

Could you just walk us through why are investors not excited about this report that seems to be showing that the economy is doing well?

And it was one of the key themes going into 2026 from an investor perspective, which is that we were entering what we all thought was a rate-cutting environment.

And now it appears after this data, which, yes, gives us good news, but it essentially means that we all have one problem, and that problem is inflation.

What do we want to do about it?

The only real solution to that, if you're at the Federal Reserve, is you hike rates.

And now we look at

The odds on Kalshi of a rate hike before the end of the year in 2026 has gone up to around 52%.

So it seems very probable.

I guess, I mean, I think we're all on the same page.

If we enter a rate hiking environment, that's not a great thing for stocks, particularly these tech stocks that you mentioned.

But then there's a question of how probable is it really?

Yeah.

And that probably goes back to inflation.

How bad is this inflation problem?

Yes, it's nice that we have this employment problem out of the way, we think, based on the jobs report.

But I guess my question to you is, given what you're seeing in the inflation, given how quote-unquote good this jobs report actually was, how likely is a rate hike really?

I can't wait.