Ed Elson

which it sounds like it's going to add another percentage point.

So it sounds like we have doubled prices, what prices would have been if we hadn't gotten into a conflict with Iran, and if we hadn't nuked trade policy with indiscriminate tariffs on the rest of the globe.

I guess put that 4% number in context,

How consequential is that from a consumer perspective?

And is that something to be actually worried about?

Over the next six months, what is the number one thing that you think that is going to be of most consequence, the thing that you think that we should all be watching, that you will be watching most closely in terms of its impact, probably in triggering recession?

I mean, I guess there are a range of things that we can think about and be worried about or excited about.

It could be AI.

We could be

Thinking about private credit, what's going to happen in the private credit markets?

What's going to happen in geopolitics?

What's going to happen to the price of oil?

I mean, if you had to pick one thing that you think is most important or significant right now, what would it be?

Mark Zandi is the chief economist of Moody's, a leading provider of economic research data and analytical tools.

He also hosts the Inside Economics podcast and serves on the board of directors of MGIC, the nation's largest private mortgage insurance company.

Mark,

Always appreciate it.

Thank you so much.

This episode was produced by Claire Miller and Alison Weiss and engineered by Benjamin Spencer.

Our video editor is Jorge Carty.