Ed Elson

And what is the overall trajectory of gas prices at this point?

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When you do anything that increases inflation at a structural level, which seems has happened here, it's almost like you're testing the consumer.

Are you down to pay this much?

And then when the consumer does pay, largely because, what, you're going to not pay for gas at this point?

I mean, most consumers need to pay for gas.

And it's like, oh.

They can afford it.

They're good.

The consumer is spending, which is obviously going to make the inflation even stickier.

I think the big question then becomes, what does this mean for the Fed?

And, I mean, coming into 2026, what was so striking was that...

Investors seem to recognize, yes, there are some headwinds here.

Yes, we're worried about the AI story.

It might be a bubble, and that's causing some concern, et cetera.

But generally, the story which I even bought myself and said on this podcast was, yes, but we are entering a rate-cutting environment.

And so the idea of betting against the stock market in a rate-cutting cycle is pretty bold and maybe one that you should sort of second-guess.

And now inflation's rising again.