Ed Elson

But as you pointed out, there were some issues there because of the October shutdown.

So we're realistically more at around 3%.

The Fed's target is 2%.

We were basically at 2% until we put the tariffs in place, which basically raised prices by a percentage point, got us to 3%.

Now we've got the war.

and what it's doing to gas prices, which as we've all started to learn, gas or oil is sort of affects everything.

It affects freight, it affects construction materials, it affects plastic, it affects literally everything, the gas that we put into our cars, obviously.

which it sounds like it's going to add another percentage point.

So it sounds like we have doubled prices, what prices would have been if we hadn't gotten into a conflict with Iran, and if we hadn't nuked trade policy with indiscriminate tariffs on the rest of the globe.

I guess put that 4% number in context,

How consequential is that from a consumer perspective?

And is that something to be actually worried about?

Over the next six months, what is the number one thing that you think that is going to be of most consequence, the thing that you think that we should all be watching, that you will be watching most closely in terms of its impact, probably in triggering recession?

I mean, I guess there are a range of things that we can think about and be worried about or excited about.

It could be AI.

We could be

Thinking about private credit, what's going to happen in the private credit markets?

What's going to happen in geopolitics?

What's going to happen to the price of oil?

I mean, if you had to pick one thing that you think is most important or significant right now, what would it be?