Ed Elson

But I think the question becomes now, have things changed?

Because of the fact that we made this threat, now we have this ceasefire, which is

Kind of a ceasefire.

Not really.

We can get into the details.

But I guess, how has this adjusted your views of what's going to happen in the markets and perhaps in the economy in the U.S.?

I mean, one thing that has changed from before, I mean, I would argue that once you threaten nuclear warfare, the whole world has changed for various reasons that maybe we can't see them.

But one thing that is a legitimate material change that has happened as a result of these, I guess, negotiations is that now Iran is charging $2 million for every ship that passes through the Strait of Hormuz.

And they have said in the agreement that they have full sovereignty over

over the strait.

And now they're going to charge people for moving goods through it.

So I guess the question is, one, do you think that that holds?

And two, how significant is it from an inflation perspective?

Because it seems like that is, yes, ships can pass through, but now there's a toll.

And it's quite significant.

And perhaps that will increase prices on oil or maybe on gas down the line even more.

What do you think?

Yeah, how does that play out, those long-term consequences?

Because I feel like we're so focused on direct effects right now, because we're talking about guns and missiles and nuclear bombs, and it seems almost ridiculous to try to

map out what are the second order effects going to be of dropping a nuclear bomb or not.