Ed Elson

I guess the question is, how does what's happened this week update your recession forecast and your probability that we would enter a recession?

Right, and that's the part that is so interesting, watching investors and watching the markets try to price that in, because the way, I mean, it's almost like, I just think about the way I'm thinking now.

I mean, at the beginning of the week, I didn't think we were actually gonna drop a nuke on Iran, but I was like, well, it's a question that you have to take seriously, because the guy did threaten it, and he said that it would probably happen.

And so I didn't actually think that, but that was something that was in my head.

And now, as we get to the end of the week, I'm sitting here, and in my own mind, I'm just completely preoccupied with completely different things.

The entire conversation has changed, and yet one thing that remains throughout all of this is that the uncertainty and the volatility and the erraticism of the guy remains incredibly high.

And so the idea of saying, oh, okay...

It's solved now, probably, slightly.

That also seems crazy.

And I wonder if... I think you make a good point about the insurance premiums in the Strait of Hormuz and the way that that will affect prices moving forward.

It does seem like that's the business to be in right now.

And that's possibly going to put...

I mean, I guess I'd pose the question, maybe the most amount of pressure on prices is as, I mean, insurance is the best example, we are going to have to price the uncertainty of this moment.

Yes, maybe ships can pass through right now, but how do you price the risk that perhaps they will not be able to pass through tomorrow?

And how do you put that into your model?

And do you put that into your model?

Those are the questions that seem to be significant and very, very hard to answer.

We'll be right back.

And for even more markets content, sign up for our newsletter at profgmarkets.com.

We're back with ProfgMarkets.