Ed Elson

The yield on 10-year treasuries hit a one-month high as traders gave up hopes for a rate cut this year.

Brent crude hit the highest level since 2022 after President Trump told aides to prepare for an extended blockade.

And big tech shares were mixed as earnings started to roll in.

More on that later.

Okay, what else is happening?

Earlier this year, legendary investor Ray Dalio declared that the world order had broken down.

Since he made that claim, the national debt surpassed $39 trillion to reach a new record.

We've also gone to war with Iran, which has cost at least $25 billion so far and sent the price of oil soaring.

And on top of that, new projections show that tariffs are expected to add another $1 trillion to the deficit over the next 10 years.

In sum, the deficit is expanding, inflation appears to be rising, and meanwhile, the Fed is stuck holding rates at a crucial time of transition.

So we wanted to check in on all of these dynamics.

So we decided to check in with the man himself, Ray Dalio, global macro investor, founder of Bridgewater Associates and New York Times bestselling author.

Ray, thank you so much for joining us again on the show.

I guess we should start with your main investment theme, which is the big cycle.

and the five main forces that drive the big cycle that you have been warning about for a long time.

Could you just remind us what is the big cycle and what are those five forces that are moving markets?

Well, it's...

It's very helpful because, I mean, with each force, very, very obvious examples come to mind.

I mean, with the first force, the thing that comes to mind is the fact that, as I said, the national debt has surpassed $39 trillion.

We're sitting at a record high in the U.S.