Ed Elson

Thank you.

Okay, let's talk about insider trading, specifically in relation to Iran.

First, a review of the facts.

On Sunday morning, about 15 minutes before Trump announced he was engaging in talks with Iran, we saw gigantic spikes in trading volumes across multiple different markets.

So in the oil markets, at around 6.50 a.m.,

more than half a billion dollars in oil futures changed hands.

This is an unusually large number for such a short amount of time.

Over in the stock market, we saw similar moves.

Roughly $1.5 billion worth of S&P futures were purchased again at around 6.50 a.m.

We also saw similar things in the prediction markets.

One user said,

made nearly $1 million betting on the war with 93% accuracy, and multiple traders have now been flagged for making what appear to be insider trades.

Which leaves us with two conclusions.

Either a handful of individuals are getting extraordinarily lucky with their extraordinarily large and well-timed bets,

Or a handful of individuals knew something and they decided to trade on it in the belief that, one, they'd get very rich, which they did, and two, that they wouldn't be punished, which they probably won't.

Now, if we agree that the second option is more likely, that they knew something probably because of a connection to the president, then the next question becomes, isn't that illegal?

Shouldn't they be in jail?

And the answer to that question is a resounding yes.

If someone knew what Trump was going to do ahead of time, then that is material, non-public information that meets the SEC's definition of what constitutes illegal insider trading.

But—and here is the most important part—