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Prof G Markets

Is the Oil Crisis About to Break Global Supply Chains?

25 Mar 2026

Transcription

Transcript generated automatically by AI and may contain errors.

Chapter 1: What is the main topic discussed in this episode?

0.892 - 19.717 Unknown

Support for the show comes from VCX, the public ticker for private tech. The U.S. stock market started history's greatest wave of wealth creation. From factory workers in Detroit to farmers in Omaha, anyone could own a piece of the great American companies. But today, our most innovative companies are staying private longer, which means everyday Americans are missing out. Until now.

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Introducing VCX, a public ticker for private tech. Visit GetVCX.com for more info. That's GetVCX.com. Carefully consider the investment materials before investing, including objectives, risk charges, and expenses. This and other information can be found in the funds prospectus at GetVCX.com. This is a paid sponsorship. Thank you.

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including loss of principal, brokered services for U.S.-listed registered securities. Options and bonds in a self-directed account are offered by Public Investing, Inc., member FINRA, and SIPC. Complete disclosures available at public.com slash disclosures. Once upon a mundane morning, Barb's day got busy without warning. A realtor in need of an open house sign.

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88.636 - 112.154 Unknown

No, 50 of them, and designed before nine. My head hurts. Any mighty tools to help with this plight? Ow! Barb made her move. She opened Canva and got in the groove. While creating Canva sheets, create 50 signs fit for suburban streets. Done in a click, all complete. Sweet! Now, imagine what your dreams can become when you put imagination to work at Canva.com.

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112.174 - 126.377 Ed Elson

Today's number? $19 billion. That's how many dollars it will cost to renovate New York's new JFK Airport. That makes it one of the most expensive U.S. reconstruction projects since Kylie Jenner.

129.082 - 133.108 Gil Luria

Money markets matter. If money is evil, then that building is hell.

135.973 - 137.515 Unknown

The show goes on! Get back in there and watch the show! Show!

138.794 - 163.485 Ed Elson

Welcome to Profiteer Markets. I'm Ed Elson. It is March 25th. Let's check in on yesterday's market vitals. The S&P and the Dow declined marginally as investors looked for clarity on negotiations with Iran. Meanwhile, the Trump administration deployed more troops to the Middle East and oil resumed its climb. And finally, the Nasdaq dropped as software stocks took yet another dive.

163.826 - 192.186 Ed Elson

More on that later. OK, what else is happening? The Strait of Hormuz, which carries a fifth of global energy exports, has now been effectively closed for 25 days, and the ripple effects are being felt across the globe. Fertilizer prices are up 25% since the war began. Gas is up 30%. Diesel is up 40%. Meanwhile, shipping disruptions are raising global freight costs and extending delivery times.

Chapter 2: How could rising oil prices disrupt global supply chains?

747.386 - 765.518 Ryan Petersen

Yeah, of course you can get jet fuel at the airport, but it's very interconnected now. And actually, I should have looked this up before I came on. I don't know how long they actually can suspend the Jones Act for, but it's not permanent. It's an act of Congress. The president has some emergency powers, but it's not a permanent waiver of that. So we'll see how that plays out.

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765.498 - 784.088 Ed Elson

When I think about the global supply chain at this point, it feels like we've had these immense shocks. I mean, first it was COVID and suddenly everyone realized, okay, supply chains matter. I think that's when you became, honestly, you really burst into the scene in that moment because everyone was like, oh my gosh, we need to understand this stuff.

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784.108 - 808.924 Ed Elson

Then we see, obviously, what's happened in the Middle East and how it's disrupted the Red Sea, as you mentioned, something that's less talked about. Also, tariffs. and what that has done to the supply chain. And now here we are again with this war in Iran. I guess my question to you, do you think that this is a temporary shock that we will kind of move through over the maybe short to medium term?

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809.124 - 816.594 Ed Elson

Or have supply chains just structurally become more difficult? Is this kind of issue something that's here to stay?

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817.075 - 817.916 Ryan Petersen

It's the right question.

Chapter 3: What impact does the closure of the Strait of Hormuz have on shipping costs?

818.938 - 840.865 Ryan Petersen

I think... There's a... Let's hope that it's temporary. You got to plan as if it's not, though. And we really take this for granted. I mean, it didn't used to be like this. It used to be worse. Before World War II, if you wanted to do trade anywhere, you sort of... Countries just traded with their own colonies and, like, most...

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840.845 - 859.275 Ryan Petersen

Remember, like, you know, before, during the British Empire and prior, centuries prior, like, if you wanted to do trade, you put a bunch of cannons on your merchant and you sailed around the world ready to blast anybody, you know? And it was, like, way worse. And we got to the world order that we have today after World War II with the U.S. Navy, right?

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859.255 - 882.599 Ryan Petersen

Basically providing protection and freedom of navigation and saying, hey, no, you know, you can say anyone can sail anywhere. U.S. Navy will protect the sea lanes and you could open up trade. And so that's why this is so such a fundamental challenge. The Red Sea first and now. And now the Persian Gulf, because it's a challenge to that global order. It's like, is the U.S.

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882.619 - 898.206 Ryan Petersen

Navy capable of opening the Strait of Hormuz? And we've already seen they're not capable of opening the Red Sea. They tried. The Supercarrier Task Force and a small group of rebels in Yemen prevailed and have continued to make it so that the container ships have to go around.

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898.186 - 919.273 Ryan Petersen

So it's a massive question for globalization, the way that our economies are structured, our companies are all built around these globalized supply chains. And I think people need to start thinking about plan B of more regional supply chains that are not as exposed. Yeah. Countries need to think hard about who their strategic partners are.

919.894 - 934.977 Ryan Petersen

More countries are going to arm up and create, you know, have to invest in their own navies. Probably see this from Japan, starting to see a lot of European companies start to, European countries, I should say, start to build up military force for the first time, saying maybe we can't count on

934.957 - 942.053 Ryan Petersen

just America to defend us and realize there's a lot of bad guys in the world and you can't just sit around and expect that everything's going to be fine.

942.093 - 967.62 Ed Elson

It's a really interesting point. I guess I'm wondering, as the CEO of one of the biggest companies that works exactly in this space, What does that mean for you? Like, how do you change your strategy in a world where you can't take globalization and free and unfettered trade for granted? And you do have to start thinking about geopolitics, about violence, about war.

967.96 - 981.957 Ed Elson

I mean, if we're talking about cannons on ships and you're saying that Europe needs to think about that again for the first time since before the war, before the World War I or World War II, like, what does that mean for you?

Chapter 4: How is the air freight market affected by current geopolitical tensions?

1056.555 - 1077.488 Ryan Petersen

Same on the tariff front. Like we built all this tech to help companies manage their tariffs and figure out how much do they owe. Because it used to be simple to calculate, but now you need to know on what date did this container clear customs. Tariff rate on one day is way different than it was a week earlier or a week later. And what refund am I going to get?

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1077.508 - 1095.45 Ryan Petersen

And how do I help people get refunds from tariffs now that the Supreme Court kind of overturned the tariffs? So we've seen that we can definitely stand out with tech in this volatility and turn it to our advantage. That said, like, you know, I'd much rather have a growing market where everything's Goldilocks. It's very interesting.

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1095.611 - 1118.543 Ed Elson

Okay, Ryan Peterson, CEO of Flexport. Ryan, really appreciate it. Thank you. Yeah, my pleasure. After the break, round two of the SaaSpocalypse hits the markets. And for even more markets insights, you can subscribe to my weekly newsletter, Simply Put, at simplyput.profgmedia.com.

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Bye. Bye. Bye. There's basically been one guy in Republican politics who's argued for regime change in Iran for years and for America to take a proactive military role in making it happen. Ambassador John Bolton, President Trump's former national security advisor. But now even Bolton says Donald Trump is messing it up.

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As far as we can tell, he did no preparation of the opposition actually inside Iran. No coordination, no effort to see what they would do, no effort to support them, to provide resources, money, arms, if that's what they wanted, telecommunications, just no coordination at all. And they don't seem prepared for it. how Trump lost the Republican Party's biggest Iran war hawk.

1198.579 - 1201.484 Unknown

Today Explained, every weekday and on Saturdays too.

1208.915 - 1233.775 Ed Elson

We're back with Profty Markets. Anthropic is yet again moving markets. On Monday night, the company released a new clawed co-work feature which allows its AI model to autonomously access apps, navigate browsers, and edit files. This news immediately spooked the markets. Major software companies like Microsoft, Salesforce, and Palantir all ended the day in the red.

1234.216 - 1262.054 Ed Elson

As a whole, the IGV software ETF closed down roughly 4%. It's now off more than 30% from its peak last fall. Here to break down what is happening in software, we are speaking with Gil Luria, head of technology research at DA Davidson. Gil, this is... the SaaSpocalypse part two, probably less intense than the first one.

1262.475 - 1280.087 Ed Elson

But it is striking that we're seeing the same thing, a new AI tool released by the same company. And again, investors are very concerned about this. What do you make of the new tool from Anthropic? And are you as concerned as other investors appear to be?

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