Ed

So, so like this, this is just probability.

The probability is we won't have a pop this year because most years we don't.

It's, it's that dumb, right?

Is that really your reasoning?

Most years we don't, you know, even at these levels of high valuation, these things can go on for quite a long time.

And I would add on top of that, the general setup is pretty benign right now.

The economy is strong.

We can talk about the somewhat wobbly labor market, which is a red flag, but in terms of growth and spending and activity by a lot of measures, things are good and perhaps even getting better.

We might have Fed cuts coming.

We definitely have massive fiscal stimulus coming.

It's an environment that is quite benign

which means there's less possible triggers for the deflation of the asset bubble that we're in right now.

Look, there's midterms coming, baby.

You can't believe that Scott Besson and Donald Trump are going to throw the kitchen sink at

at this economy.

And 2027, be damned, you know, they're going to do everything they can for 2026.

I mean, one thing that is interesting about where we are now, as opposed to in 2008, say, is that—and this is the kind of sentence that gets you in trouble, but I'm going to say it anyway—

Most or all of the leverage seems to be in the government.

In 2008, there was leverage in households and also in companies.

And since then, households and companies have cleaned up their balance sheet with the assistance from governments, which have this infinite appetite for debt.