Ed
๐ค SpeakerAppearances Over Time
Podcast Appearances
That's such a good point.
So that doesn't sound like a very good sustainable solution and way to live your life as a world to me, but it might make
Uh, at least in the short term, a crash less likely because the crashes we know in, in developed countries, at least they tend to happen.
They started with households panicking or, or private institutions.
And somebody will write in and find an exception to me, but most of the debt is in the government and they've got a printing press, which leads to the next important point.
The big spoiler, the thing I'm worried about most is
is inflation, right?
When you have all this debt in the public realm, and you're forcing all this stimulus into the economy fiscally, and you're cutting rates, and the economy's doing pretty well, and you've reduced the labor supply by throwing all the immigrants out, I can't predict inflation.
I don't understand it, but if there's inflation, all the nice things I just said are not true.
You know, inflation goes up, the 10-year yield goes to 5.5%.
You know, it's a different game.
Let me just ask you, what did you make of it?
No, that's fair.
You know it as well as I do.
Yeah, I mean, it looks to me, and again, the data is flawed, and we have this gap, and it's surprising.
We have this gap from the government's shutdown, and it's surprising how that affects the data in months.
All this stuff is kind of path-dependent and all this stuff.
But what it looks like is we're still above target.
Goods is maybe getting a little bit better.
services outside of housing is not.