Ege Erdil

Yeah, I think it's not a very useful concept.

It's kind of like calling the Industrial Revolution a horsepower explosion.

Like, sure, during the Industrial Revolution, we saw this drastic acceleration in raw physical power.

But there are many other things that were maybe equally important in explaining the acceleration of growth and technological change that we saw during the Industrial Revolution.

So I think in the case of the Industrial Revolution, it was a bunch of these complementary changes to many different sectors in the economy.

So you had agriculture, you had transportation, you had law and finance, you had urbanization and moving from rural areas into cities.

There were just many different innovations that kind of happened simultaneously that gave rise to this change in the way of economically organizing our society.

It wasn't just that we had more horsepower.

I mean, that was part of it, but that's not the kind of central thing to focus on when thinking about the Industrial Revolution.

And I think similarly for the development of AI, sure, we'll get a lot of very smart AI systems,

But that will be one part among very many different moving parts that explain, you know, why we expect to get this transition and this acceleration and growth and technological change.

Wait, and you?

I'm a little bit more bullish.

I mean, it depends what you mean by dropping a remote worker and whether it's able to do like literally everything that can be done remotely or do most things.

I'm saying literally everything.

For literally everything, yeah.

Just shade, I guess, predictions by five years or like by 20% or something.

Why?

So just to double-click on that, I mean, I think what Ege is referring to is like, if you look at the past 10 years of AI progress, we've gone through about 9 or 10 orders of magnitude of compute, and we've got

various capabilities that were unlocked.