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Dwarkesh Podcast

AGI is Still 30 Years Away — Ege Erdil & Tamay Besiroglu

17 Apr 2025

Transcription

Full Episode

0.031 - 21.756 Dwarkesh Patel

Today I'm chatting with Tame Besaroglu and Ege Erdo. They were previously running Epoch AI and are now launching Mechanize, which is a company dedicated to automating all work. One of the interesting points you made recently, Tame, is that the whole idea of the intelligence explosion is mistaken or misleading. Why don't you explain what you were talking about there?

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22.197 - 34.031 Ege Erdil

Yeah, I think it's not a very useful concept. It's kind of like calling the Industrial Revolution a horsepower explosion. Like, sure, during the Industrial Revolution, we saw this drastic acceleration in raw physical power.

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34.492 - 43.083 Ege Erdil

But there are many other things that were maybe equally important in explaining the acceleration of growth and technological change that we saw during the Industrial Revolution.

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43.684 - 50.372 Dwarkesh Patel

What is a way to characterize the broader set of things that the horsepower perspective would miss about the Industrial Revolution?

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50.352 - 67.855 Ege Erdil

So I think in the case of the Industrial Revolution, it was a bunch of these complementary changes to many different sectors in the economy. So you had agriculture, you had transportation, you had law and finance, you had urbanization and moving from rural areas into cities.

67.835 - 88.224 Ege Erdil

There were just many different innovations that kind of happened simultaneously that gave rise to this change in the way of economically organizing our society. It wasn't just that we had more horsepower. I mean, that was part of it, but that's not the kind of central thing to focus on when thinking about the Industrial Revolution.

88.505 - 106.498 Ege Erdil

And I think similarly for the development of AI, sure, we'll get a lot of very smart AI systems, But that will be one part among very many different moving parts that explain, you know, why we expect to get this transition and this acceleration and growth and technological change.

106.518 - 128.638 Dwarkesh Patel

Yeah. I want to better understand how you think about that broader transformation. Before we do, the other really interesting part of your worldview is that you have longer timelines to get to AGI than most of the people in San Francisco who think about AI. When do you expect a drop in remote worker replacement? Yeah, maybe for me that would be around like...

128.618 - 129.64 Tamay Besiroglu

20, 45 or... Wow.

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